Tropical Storm Dorian Heading Towards Florida

Tropical Storm Dorian

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) — We’re not going to hype it at this point, but you any want to solidify your hurricane plan this weekend as Tropical Storm Dorian has the potential of heading our way. It’s still too early to know — or to be concerned — but this is one to watch.

From the National Hurricane Center:

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013

1100 AM AST THU JUL 25 2013

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THERE HAS

BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN OR

STRUCTURE OF DORIAN SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE COMPACT

TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL BUT SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW

PATTERN…ALONG WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL EQUATORIAL INFLOW. SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND AND 45 KT FROM TAFB…

SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 50 KT. THE INITIAL

POSITION IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIX

POSITIONS BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/15. THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO

CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE NHC MODEL

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON DORIAN MOVING IN

A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST

PERIOD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS CONTINUES TO BE THE

FORWARD SPEED OF DORIAN…WITH THE ECMWF AND HWRF BEING THE FASTEST

MODELS WITH A WEAKER CYCLONE…WHILE THE GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MEAN

MODELS ARE THE SLOWEST DUE TO THEIR FORECASTING A STRONGER VORTEX.

BASED ON THE BETTER PERFORMANCE OF THE GFS MODEL INTENSITY

FORECASTS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS

TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION AND SHOWS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED TO BEGIN BY 48-72 HOURS AS DORIAN APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION

OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK…AND IS VERY CLOSE TO BUT SLOWER

THAN THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCN.

DORIAN APPEARS TO HAVE SURVIVED PASSAGE OVER THE REGION OF COOLEST

SSTS OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW MOVING OVER AND TOWARD WARMER WATERS.

ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED EQUATORIAL INFLOW OF WARM UNSTABLE AIR

LIKELY HELPED OFFSET THE COOLING BENEATH DORIAN…THAT LIFELINE IS

FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO BE CUT OFF DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS…WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE COMPACT CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH A

REGION OF DECREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MORE STABLE AIR…

PRODUCING SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER

THAT…THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15

KT…WHICH WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IF THE

INNER CORE CONVECTION CAN REMAIN INTACT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY

FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND LGEM SOLUTIONS…AND ASSUMES

DORIAN WILL SURVIVE ITS TREK THROUGH UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC

CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 16.0N 35.9W 50 KT 60 MPH

12H 26/0000Z 16.6N 38.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

24H 26/1200Z 17.4N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH

36H 27/0000Z 18.0N 46.2W 50 KT 60 MPH

48H 27/1200Z 18.7N 49.9W 50 KT 60 MPH

72H 28/1200Z 19.8N 57.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

96H 29/1200Z 20.7N 63.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

120H 30/1200Z 21.5N 67.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

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