Dorian Disorganized

Dorian at 5p Friday.

 

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) — The latest update from the National Hurricane Center reveals Dorian is losing some of its badness:

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR…DORIAN HASBECOME EVEN LESS ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY. VISIBLESATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOMEDISPLACED TO THE WEST OF AN AREA OF WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION.ALSO…ANIMATION OF THE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CIRCULATION IS BARELYCLOSED AT THIS TIME. USING A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SABAND TAFB…THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT. THEOFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST NOW SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING WITHDISSIPATION BY DAY 5…IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRFGUIDANCE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS…HOWEVER…THE SYSTEM COULDDEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN WAVE MUCH SOONER THAN THAT.THE LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT DORIAN IS MOVING RAPIDLYWESTWARD…SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. A STRONGLOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF DORIAN ISFORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD WITH TIME BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THISSHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERALDAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH OFTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCEENVELOPE. THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHBUT THAT MODEL DOES NOT INITIALIZE NOR FORECAST A CLOSED SURFACECIRCULATION.

 

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