Dorian Dying, Dissipating

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) — What is now Tropical Storm Dorian may be nothing at all in the next day or so — so says the National Hurricane Center in its 5a (Saturday) update:

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 AM AST SAT JUL 27 2013

DISORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF DORIAN
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER…WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
WIDESPREAD MID-/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR THE CYCLONE…WHICH
SUGGESTS THIS CONVECTION COULD BE SHORT-LIVED. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FROM TAFB AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT RECENT
OSCAT DATA SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT DORIAN NO LONGER HAS A
CLOSED CIRCULATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/19. A STRONG LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH
OF DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE QUICKLY WESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 72 HR. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO…AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

DORIAN IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE 15-20 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD…AS WELL AS MOVE THROUGH A DRY
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL AIR MASS. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING…WITH THE CYCLONE DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT
LOW BY 36 HR. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM COULD
DEGENERATE TO A TROPICAL WAVE AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 72 HR…
AND THUS DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS IN THE AREA WEST OF THE FORECAST POINT OF DISSIPATION ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR RE-GENERATION AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 18.2N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 18.6N 53.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 19.2N 57.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 19.8N 61.1W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/0600Z 20.4N 64.7W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0600Z 21.0N 71.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/0600Z…DISSIPATED

----------------------------------------LYFT PROMO CODE--------------------------------------
Use our Lyft promo code BNN123 for substantial discounts for your first Lyft rides. Enter the code in your app, or just click here.

---------------------------ABOUT BOCANEWSNOW.COM-----------------------

BocaNewsNow.com is the leading hyper-local news website based in and serving Boca Raton, Florida and South Palm Beach County. Our pages have been visited millions of times over our five year history of reporting, providing opinion and snark.

This is not a "mug shot" website. Arrest reports and mugshots are provided by law enforcement officials under Florida Statute. While we review all requests for removal, we are not obligated to remove reports that are a part of the public record.

When removal is appropriate, we do so at no charge. We do not accept payment for mugshot or arrest report deletion.

We remind our readers that an arrest is an accusation. Guilt or innocence is determined in a court of law. Email us at news (at) bocanewsnow.com or telephone 561-419-9520.

All Content Copyright © 2017 MetroDesk Media, LLC. All Rights Reserved.