Hurricane Center: Erin Now Tropical Storm But Will Soon Die

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) — Erin is now a tropical storm but will dissipate in the next few days, according to the National Hurricane Center:

 

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERIN CONTINUES TO BE EXPOSED...AND IS

LOCATED SOUTH OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT...BUT ERIN SHOULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION

SOON IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUB-26C WATER AND IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR

OF AROUND 15 KT. WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY

WARMER WATERS IN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...A DRY STABLE AIRMASS AND

MODERATE SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN EVENTUAL WEAKENING TO A REMNANT

LOW. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS REMNANT LOW STATUS IN 3 DAYS AND

DISSIPATION AT DAY 4...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER AS SHOWN BY

SEVERAL MODELS.

ERIN HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW

HOURS...LIKELY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW SOUTH OF

THE AZORES. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ERIN HAS TURNED BACK

TOWARD THE LEFT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/11. THE

TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON ERIN TURNING BACK TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE

OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW

CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 24N/49W. IF ERIN SURVIVES LONG ENOUGH...IT

WILL LIKELY TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN

THE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS BY 72 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST HAS AGAIN

BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AND IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO

ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. THE NHC TRACK LIES

NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE FSU

SUPERENSEMBLE.

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