BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) — No need to run to Home Depot or Lowes today. The National Hurricane Center says it appears that Hurricane Matthew will not have significant impact with – or on — South Florida. (Note: Lowes in West Boca in the evening is an example of horrible management. Prepare to wait in long lines due to the inability of managers there to open checkout lanes or allow use of the self-checkout lanes. But on with our story).
Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:
The latest Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission into Matthew
found peak flight-level winds of 124 kt at 10,000 feet and a peak
SFMR wind of 122 kt in the northeastern eyewall around 12Z. Based
on these data, the initial intensity is set to 120 kt for this
advisory. The aircraft reported an eyewall with a diameter of
14 n mi that is open to the southwest and the latest central
pressure based on dropsonde data is 941 mb. Little overall change
in intensity is expected during the next couple of days, with the
exception of some weakening due to possible land interaction with
Haiti and eastern Cuba. However, there could be fluctuations in
intensity due to eyewall cycles that are difficult to predict.
While Matthew is expected to be a little weaker once it moves into
the Bahamas as the shear increases somewhat and the ocean heat
content decreases a little, it is expected to remain a dangerous
hurricane through the next 5 days.
Matthew is moving due north at around 5 kt, and the hurricane should
continue moving generally northward for the next 36 to 48 hours
around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.
During this time, the track guidance is in generally good agreement
and the NHC forecast has been nudged a little to the east toward the
consensus aids and the center of the guidance envelope. After that
time, the track foreast becomes more complicated, with the models
continuing to show a lack of consistency in the evolution of the
ridge rebuilding north of Matthew in 3 to 5 days, leading to a large
amount of along and cross track spread at these times. The ECMWF
and UKMET are along the left side of the guidance at days 4 and 5,
with the other models farther east. The new NHC track is a bit left
of the previous one and lies near the latest GFS/ECMWF blend, and a
little left of the latest multi-model consensus.
While all of the deterministic track models currently keep Matthew
east of Florida, there is still enough uncertainty in the global
ensembles that direct impacts in Florida cannot be ruled out. In
addition, it is still too soon to determine whether, or how Matthew
could affect the remainder of the U.S. east coast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 15.6N 75.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 17.0N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 18.9N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 20.8N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 22.6N 74.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 28.5N 77.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 32.0N 77.0W 95 KT 110 MPH