BOCA RATON, FL ( — No need to run to Home Depot or Lowes today. The National Hurricane Center says it appears that Hurricane Matthew will not have significant impact with – or on — South Florida. (Note: Lowes in West Boca in the evening is an example of horrible management. Prepare to wait in long lines due to the inability of managers there to open checkout lanes or allow use of the self-checkout lanes. But on with our story). 

Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

The latest Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission into Matthew

found peak flight-level winds of 124 kt at 10,000 feet and a peak

SFMR wind of 122 kt in the northeastern eyewall around 12Z. Based

on these data, the initial intensity is set to 120 kt for this

advisory. The aircraft reported an eyewall with a diameter of

14 n mi that is open to the southwest and the latest central

pressure based on dropsonde data is 941 mb. Little overall change

in intensity is expected during the next couple of days, with the

exception of some weakening due to possible land interaction with

Haiti and eastern Cuba. However, there could be fluctuations in

intensity due to eyewall cycles that are difficult to predict.

While Matthew is expected to be a little weaker once it moves into

the Bahamas as the shear increases somewhat and the ocean heat

content decreases a little, it is expected to remain a dangerous

hurricane through the next 5 days.
Matthew is moving due north at around 5 kt, and the hurricane should

continue moving generally northward for the next 36 to 48 hours

around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.

During this time, the track guidance is in generally good agreement

and the NHC forecast has been nudged a little to the east toward the

consensus aids and the center of the guidance envelope. After that

time, the track foreast becomes more complicated, with the models

continuing to show a lack of consistency in the evolution of the

ridge rebuilding north of Matthew in 3 to 5 days, leading to a large

amount of along and cross track spread at these times. The ECMWF

and UKMET are along the left side of the guidance at days 4 and 5,

with the other models farther east. The new NHC track is a bit left

of the previous one and lies near the latest GFS/ECMWF blend, and a

little left of the latest multi-model consensus.
While all of the deterministic track models currently keep Matthew

east of Florida, there is still enough uncertainty in the global

ensembles that direct impacts in Florida cannot be ruled out. In

addition, it is still too soon to determine whether, or how Matthew

could affect the remainder of the U.S. east coast.
INIT 03/1500Z 15.6N 75.0W 120 KT 140 MPH

 12H 04/0000Z 17.0N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH

 24H 04/1200Z 18.9N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

 36H 05/0000Z 20.8N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

 48H 05/1200Z 22.6N 74.9W 110 KT 125 MPH

 72H 06/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

 96H 07/1200Z 28.5N 77.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

120H 08/1200Z 32.0N 77.0W 95 KT 110 MPH