5P Map Update, Sunday, From National Hurricane Center.
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) — The Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect at 5p for Boca Raton and the surrounding area. Although things are looking significantly better outside, we're not completely out of the woods just yet.
Here are the latest two advisories — issued at 5:05p — from the National Hurricane Center. The next advisory is at 8p, followed by a major update at 11. As always, you can find information directly on the National Hurricane Center website — just click the red banner at the top of this page.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/H…AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT…
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY…AND APPROACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS…AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR
TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES…335 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SMITH SHOAL LIGHT…NEAR KEY WEST…REPORTED A
WIND GUST TO 70 MPH…113 KM/H…AND VIRGINIA KEY REPORTED A WIND
GUST TO 66 MPH…106 KM/H.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB…29.29 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES…WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES…WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST.
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS…AND SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY…WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…
* NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA…6 TO 12 FT
* REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND APALACHEE BAY…4 TO 7 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY…2 TO 4 FT
* SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS…1 TO 3 FT
* CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA…1 TO 3 FT
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS…1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
TORNADOES…ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA THOUGH TONIGHT.
SURF…DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS…CENTRAL CUBA…THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
—–
ALTHOUGH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WAS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED…AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ISAAC THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
FOUND THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM.
FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED WINDS SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT.
THERE IS STILL A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER
THE SYSTEM…AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTENSIFICATION STILL SEEMS LIKELY AS ISAAC
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF…AND POSSIBLY OVER THE HIGHER HEAT
CONTENT OF THE LOOP CURRENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOREAST IS
CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE…AND NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
ISAAC HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS AND
CENTER FIXES YIELD A 6- TO 12-HOUR AVERAGED MOTION OF 295/15. THE
TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
SHOW THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT
AND HEADING FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER…THERE
ARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS AS TO
WHERE ISAAC MIGHT CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE U.K. MET.
OFFICE AND ECMWF MODELS ARE ABOUT 300 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE GFS
AT LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE GFS ENSMEBLE
MEMBERS ARE EAST OF THE GFS CONTROL TRACK. BECAUSE OF THE WIDE
MODEL SPREAD…THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREATER THAN USUAL TRACK
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD…IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES AND THE FACT THAT
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE
OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME.
