BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2021 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — There is a new “yellow x” in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea.
While unlikely to have any impact, at all, on South Florida weather, it is the second system to appear in November — the last month of the annual Atlantic Hurricane Season. The system being watched yesterday in the far eastern Atlantic dissipated overnight.
Meantime, Tropical Storm Wanda is unlikely to do anything other than meander in the Atlantic and then dissipate. Before becoming “Wanda,” it was responsible for heavy rains and winds that impacted the northeastern United States last week.
This is the early Tuesday morning update from the National Hurricane Center, first for Wanda, then the “yellow X.”
Wanda has become a little better organized since yesterday evening with convection, albeit not very deep, now wrapping around the center of the storm. Apparently the vertical shear over the cyclone has relaxed somewhat, and the center is now more embedded within the convection. This implies that some strengthening has occurred and the intensity estimate is increased to 45 kt for this advisory. This is also in agreement with a subjective Dvorak satellite estimate from SAB. Interestingly, satellite-derived SST analyses indicate that Wanda is currently located over a small patch of warmer ocean waters, near 25 deg C. The storm is moving a little faster toward the east-northeast, or at about 060/7 kt. During the next couple of days, Wanda is likely to remain embedded within a mid-tropospheric trough . A turn toward the north is expected during the next 48 to 60 hours while the system moves along the eastern portion of the trough. Later in the forecast period, a ridge building to the west and northwest of Wanda should force a turn toward the east and east-southeast. The official forecast has been shifted to the right of the previous NHC track at days 4 and 5, following the latest dynamical model consensus. It should be noted that the GFS model shows a track significantly farther south at this later time frame. Although Wanda will soon be moving over cooler waters, the SHIPS, LGEM, and HCCA intensity guidance indicate that the system will strengthen a little more in the short term, and then more or less maintain its intensity for the next 48 hours or so. This is probably due to fairly low vertical shear and relatively cool upper-tropospheric temperatures during this time. Later, gradual weakening is likely, due to increased shear and cool waters. However baroclinic effects could at least partially offset the weakening process. The official intensity forecast is in good agreement with the corrected model consensus, HCCA, solution. Around 72 hours, simulated satellite imagery shows a loss of tropical cyclone-like cloud structure so the NHC forecast indicates a post-tropical phase by that time.
Additional Update for the “Yellow X” seen above.
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Wanda, located about 850 miles west-southwest of the Azores. 1. A low pressure system located just offshore the northern coast of Panama is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to move westward over Central America later today, and significant development is unlikely due to its interaction with land. However, this disturbance will still produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama through today, which could result in flooding and mudslides. By Wednesday, the system is forecast to move into the far eastern portion of the eastern Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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