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TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIKELY TO FORM, Hurricane Center Says 80 Percent Chance


System May Affect Florida Over The Weekend. Will Be ”Alex” If Tropical Storm.

The red zone indicates where a system may form, not necessarily a direction of travel.


BOCA RATON, FL ( (Copyright © 2022 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — A tropical depression may form within the next day or so. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say there’s an 80 percent chance that a system will form in the red zone that you see above. If it becomes a tropical storm, the first name of the year is set to be ”Alex.”

While not unprecedented, it is certainly unusual for a named system to form within the first week of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. The season officially started on June 1st. What may become a tropical depression or tropical storm is the remnants of Hurricane Agatha which was a pacific storm. It largely dissipated over Mexico.

This is the Thursday morning update from the National Hurricane Center:

  1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized
    showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula. Despite strong upper-level winds, this system is likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for some of these areas later today.

Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba during the next day or so, spreading across southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys Friday and Friday night, and the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. These heavy rains could cause scattered to numerous flash floods across South Florida and the Florida Keys.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
  1. Southwestern Atlantic: A weak surface trough located about 150 miles northeast of the northwestern Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Upper-level winds appear too strong for significant development of this system while it moves northeastward at 5 to 10 mph over the southwestern Atlantic during the next couple of days.
  • Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.



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