BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2023 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — The National Hurricane Center is watching four tropical waves. Three are east of Florida, one is West. None pose an immediate threat to Florida and only one is showing signs of notable convection. While none have risen to the level of receiving a “yellow X” on the National Hurricane Center map, we note that Colorado State University just upgraded its hurricane forecast to “Above Average” for the season.
According to CSU, “While we continue to anticipate a robust El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic now has record warm sea surface temperatures. El Niño increases vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, but the extreme anomalous warmth in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic may counteract some of the typical El Niño-driven increase in vertical wind shear.”
CSU, known as an accurate predictor of hurricane activity, now says there will be 18 named storms with nine hurricanes, four of which will be “major” hurricanes.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OBSERVATIONS AS OF JULY 8, 2023
A tropical wave extends along 30W south of 19N, moving west at around 15 kt. No significant convection is observed at this time.
A tropical wave extends along 53W from 19N to 10N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is seen at this time.
A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is along 65W south of 21N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is east of the wave axis, from 16N to 20N between 57W and 63W. Recent scatterometer data showed moderate to strong winds in the vicinity of this convection. Additional showers and tstorms are noted across the Windward and Leeward Islands. The 1200 UTC Sounding from Saint Martin captured the abundant moisture and instability in the lee of the tropical wave.
Another tropical wave is along 87W from 20N southward into the East Pacific, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the SW Caribbean from 10N to 12N west of 78W.
