Weird Steering Patterns, Weakening, Then Potential Reformation…
BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2023 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Subtropical Storm Don continues to meander his way through the Atlantic. While posing no threat to South Florida, the storm continues to be one to watch — at least for those who find named storms to be interesting. This one may die and come back to life.
Here is the Saturday morning update from the National Hurricane Center.
Subtropical Storm Don Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023
500 AM AST Sat Jul 15 2023
Don appears to be holding steady in strength. The storm is producing bands of deep convection mostly on its north side, with dry air continuing to wrap into the southern half of the circulation. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, and based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt.
Although the storm has been wobbling around, the general motion has been northward at about 8 kt during the past 12-24 hours, and that should continue through tonight. On Sunday, a turn to the east is expected as Don moves in the flow on the north side of a subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The storm will likely turn southeastward beginning late Monday as a trough amplifies over the northeastern Atlantic and western Europe. However, the steering currents could collapse during the middle part of next week causing the storm to stall. Despite the relatively complex steering flow, the models are in general agreement and have not changed much during the past several cycles. The NHC track forecast is a little to the north of the previous one in the short term, but most of the changes were minor. This track is close to the various consensus models.
Don is over relatively cool 25 degree C waters and the sea surface temperatures are expected to decrease another couple of degrees along the forecast track during the next 2 days or so. These generally unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with dry air surrounding the system should cause Don to either hold steady or lose some strength during the next 2 or 3 days. In fact, it is possible that Don becomes a post-tropical cyclone at some point during that time period. However, beyond a few days, the storm is expected to move back over slightly warmer waters, which could allow Don to restrengthen if manages to survive that long. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 35.7N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 36.9N 48.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 38.2N 48.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 39.1N 47.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 39.3N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 38.7N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 37.3N 41.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 34.3N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 33.2N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
