SATURDAY EVENING UPDATE: Now 30-Percent Chance Of Development.
BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
UPDATED AT 5 p.m. with the Saturday evening advisory.
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2024 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — With the disclaimer that it is way, way too early to be concerned, the system that the National Hurricane Center started tracking late Friday is still tracking towards South Florida Saturday morning. The system, which notably has just a ten percent of development as of Saturday morning, will become Chris if it does reach “named” status.
Whether or not this specific system grows, the development serves as a reminder that this hurricane season is expected the exceptionally busy, and it’s never too early to buy supplies that may make a storm easier to handle. We always advise buying bottled water now, while supermarkets like Publix have the generic brand which is significantly less expensive than named brands. It’s also a good time to stock up on other non-perishable foods.
Here is the Saturday EVENING update and outlook from the National Hurricane Center:
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024
For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
- Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles: An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave during the next several days. Development of this system is possible while it approaches the Lesser Antilles during the early to middle part of next week and moves generally west-northwestward near or over the Greater Antilles towards the latter part of next week.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent.
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.
… TROPICAL WAVES…
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W, south of 22N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 12N to 15N and between 24W and 27W.
Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W, south of 22N, moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave.
A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 84W, south of 19N, moving westward at 20-25 kt. A few showers thunderstorms are evident near the trough axis over eastern Honduras and Nicaragua.
… MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 09N to 12N and between 15W and 20W.
GULF OF MEXICO…
A weak surface trough in the western Gulf and divergence aloft continues to generate a few showers and isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity of the trough and the northern Gulf waters. The Gulf of Mexico is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic that extends westward into the basin. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to fresh NE winds off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas in these waters are 2-3 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place across the Gulf waters through Wed allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off NW Yucatan over the next several days.
CARIBBEAN SEA…
A broad upper level trough centered near the central Bahamas induces scattered showers in the north-central Caribbean, from eastern Cuba to Grand Cayman. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicate that winds to near gale-force are occurring in association with the strongest convection. The basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge positioned north of the islands. This ridge forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds over much of the central and SW Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft, as shown by recent altimeter satellite data. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and seas of 5-7 ft are found in the eastern Caribbean, Gulf of Honduras and lee of Cuba. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, a tropical wave will move westward across the northwest Caribbean today. The Atlantic ridge is building over the eastern and central Caribbean in the wake of the wave. This pattern will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean into the middle of the week. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds and building seas over the northwest Caribbean behind the wave axis through Sun with locally strong winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Honduras Sun night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN…
A broad upper level trough from 30N55W to the central Bahamas continues to produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms from the central Bahamas to central Cuba, and north of 27N between 55W and 60W. The Atlantic south of 30N is under the influence of an expansive subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic. Fresh easterly winds are found off northern Hispaniola, along with seas of 4-6 ft. In the far northeast Atlantic, fresh to locally strong northerly winds are occurring north of 25N and east of 20W, with the strongest winds affecting the water passages of the Canary Islands. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores high will dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through the next several days. It will shift eastward ahead of a weak cold front moving off the Carolina coast today. The front will stall then dissipate between northeast Florida and Bermuda Sun into Mon. The pattern will support fresh south of 22N, and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere into mid week. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase northeast of the Leeward Islands by late Tue associated with an approaching tropical wave.
