TUESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: STILL DEVELOPING, A BIT OF AN EASTERLY CURVE…
BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
UPDATE: 5 p.m. With National Hurricane Center Update.
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2024 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — That system growing in the Atlantic continues to be on a course for Florida and it has a 60-percent chance of development as of early Tuesday morning. While we stress there is no need to panic and it’s very, very early in the system’s life, it is important to know that it’s there. Devising a hurricane plan now can reduce stress later whether this — or any other system — becomes a problem for South Florida.
Here is the Tuesday anfternoon update from the National Hurricane Center. It is followed by the “Tropical Outlook” that includes a look at other waves that may (or may not) develop.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024
For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas: A large tropical wave centered several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing limited shower activity due to environmental dry air. Conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for development over the warmer waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas. Interests in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U. S. should monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent.
… TROPICAL WAVES…
A tropical wave is near 50W, south of 21N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near this wave axis.
… MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal and The Gambia near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 09N25W, then to 13N50W and to 10N55W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 07N and between 23W and 31W.
GULF OF MEXICO…
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are still active off the coast of west-central Florida. 1019 mb high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf, with a weak trough over the Bay of Campeche. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to locally fresh E winds near the trough. Moderate SE winds are west of the high pressure over the northwest Gulf. Seas are 2-4 ft across the western half of the basin. Light breezes and 1-2 ft seas prevail over the eastern Gulf.
For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place from the eastern U. S.
across the eastern Gulf waters through Sat allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night during the next couple of days due to local effects.
CARIBBEAN SEA…
A strong subtropical ridge north of the area extends into the Caribbean Sea, supporting strong to locally near gale-force easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea. This was confirmed by an earlier scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted in the eastern Caribbean, north- central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the region along with lower pressure over Colombia are together supporting fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean. A tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic will enter the eastern Caribbean tonight into early Wed, then move across the central Caribbean Thu and Fri. This will break up the dominance of the ridge, and allow winds and seas to diminish slightly across the central Caribbean. However, there is some potential for a tropical depression to form late this week in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles.
ATLANTIC OCEAN…
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin.
A few showers and thunderstorms are active along a surface trough that extends from just west of Bermuda to near Jupiter Inlet, Florida. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a strong high pressure system located in the north Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the tropical wave along 50W is supporting fresh trade winds and 6-7 ft seas from 20N to 25N between 45W and 55W. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are found south of the monsoon trough and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are present.
For the forecast west of 55W, the trough between Florida and Bermuda will shift north of the area today, allowing the ridge to build westward from the central Atlantic to central Florida. Winds and seas associated with a vigorous tropical wave will increase northeast of the Leeward Islands tonight into Wed, then move to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Thu, across the Bahamas Fri and Fri night and north-northeast of the Bahamas Sat and Sat night. There is some potential for a tropical depression to form late this week in the vicinity of the Bahamas.
