BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2024 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — A tropical depression may form near Florida within days. That’s the latest Wednesday update from the National Hurricane Center which continues to monitor the system off Florida’s coast. We are publishing the morning update from the NHC, followed by the “tropical outlook” which looks at several tropical waves that may also become systems to watch.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024 For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas: A large tropical wave located near the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a broad area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development while the system moves generally west-northwestward over the Greater Antilles and towards the Bahamas. A tropical depression could form by this weekend while the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, or near Florida. Interests in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U. S. should monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent.
… TROPICAL WAVES…
A newly analyzed tropical wave is southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands near 27W from 16N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 06N to 08N between 25W and 30W.
A pronounced tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles near 56W from 23N southeastward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring from 16N to 23N between 57W and 63W, just east of the Leeward Islands.
… MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritania just north of Nouakchott, then curves southwestward through 08N30W to 08N43W. An ITCZ continues westward from 08N43W to 09N53W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up south of the trough from 08N to 14N between the Senegal-Guinea coast and 19W. Similar convection is seen near and up to 150 nm south of the trough between 31W and 43W.
Aided by an upper-level trough in the vicinity, the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering numerous heavy showers and scattered strong thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and Panama.
… GULF OF MEXICO…
Two surface troughs, one at the east-central Gulf and another one near the west of coast of central Florida are producing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Otherwise, a surface ridge runs southwestward from a 1018 mb high near New Orleans to south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft are evident across the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate ESE to SSE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Straits of Florida.
For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh winds are expected near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula at night during the next couple of days due to local effects.
… CARIBBEAN SEA…
A broad surface ridge stretches southwestward from a 1030 mb high at the north-central Atlantic across 31N65W to the Great Bahama Bank. This feature sustains a trade-wind pattern across much of the Caribbean Basin. Convergent trades are generating isolated thunderstorms near the Cayman Islands and southern Haiti. Tight gradient between the surface ridge and a 1008 mb low over northwestern Colombia is causing fresh to strong ENE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas at the central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft dominate the southwestern basin, except light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in moderate easterly swell near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, except moderate to fresh ENE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas near the Windward Passage.
For the forecast, a tropical wave currently east of the Lesser Antilles will enter the eastern basin later tonight into early Wed, then move across the central basin Thu and Fri. This will break up the dominance of the ridge, and allow winds and seas to diminish slightly across the central basin. However, there is some potential for a tropical depression to form late this week in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or Bahamas.
… ATLANTIC OCEAN…
Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for convection in the Atlantic Basin. Fresh with locally strong easterly winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present from 18N to 25N between 48W and 65W, and also near the southeast Bahamas. Otherwise, a 1030 mb North Atlantic High near 37N52W along with a 1021 mb high south of the Azores are supporting gentle to moderate NNE to SE to S winds from north of 18N/20N between the northwest Africa coast and the Florida-Georgia coast, including waters near the Canary Islands. For the tropical Atlantic from 11N to 18N/20N between the central Africa coast and Lesser Antilles, gentle with locally moderate NE to SE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas exist, including waters near the Cabo Verde Islands. Gentle to moderate southerly and light to gentle monsoonal winds with 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, with the surface trough shifted north of 31N, the ridge related to the aforementioned North Atlantic High should build westward to near central Florida. Winds and seas associated with a vigorous tropical wave will increase northeast of the Leeward Islands tonight into Wed, then shift to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Thu, across the Bahamas Fri and Fri night and north-northeast of the Bahamas Sat and Sat night. There is some potential for a tropical depression to form late this week in the vicinity of the Bahamas.
