Tropical Wave Almost Certain To Develop Into Depression, More. But There Is Slight Shift To West…
BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2024 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — There is now a 90-percent chance that the system in the Atlantic becomes a tropical depression within the next seven days, and a 60-percent chance it happens by early Sunday. That’s the early Friday morning update from the National Hurricane Center. Tropical Storm Watches for parts of South Florida may go into effect later Friday.
We start with the Friday Morning update from the National Hurricane Center, followed by the “Tropical Outlook” which looks at other tropical waves of note.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024
For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Straits of Florida and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL97): A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of poorly organized showers and thunderstorms over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, and Jamaica, as well as the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. The wave is expected to move near or over Cuba throughout the day and then emerge over the Straits of Florida tonight or Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development after that time, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits of Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of Florida later today.
Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash flooding across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas through the weekend, and interests in these locations should continue to monitor the progress of this system. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today. Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent.
… TROPICAL WAVES…
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 37W from 04N to 18N, moving westward near 10 kt. Limited convection is noted with this wave as it is surrounded by a dry and stable environment that consists of Saharan Air Layer dust. Only small isolated showers are seen from 04N to 12N between the wave and 40W.
… MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott, then curves southwestward through 12N36W to 09N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 40W and 45W, and within 60 nm of the trough between 45W and 49W.
… GULF OF MEXICO…
A surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the coast of southwestern Florida. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure across the basin is allowing for mostly moderate northeast to east winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft over the southern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate winds for most of the Gulf. Fresh NE winds are expected near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight due to local effects. Looking ahead, a well-defined tropical wave, Invest-AL97, moving across the central Caribbean will impact portions of the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida with active weather Sat through Sun. A tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits of Florida or the eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula.
… CARIBBEAN SEA…
Refer to the Special Features section at the beginning for more information on a rather robust tropical wave over the central Caribbean.
A surface trough is analyzed from near the western tip of Cuba south-southeastward to near 17N84W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm are near the northern part of the trough while isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere near the trough. Otherwise, a typical trade-wind regime continues across much of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh with locally strong easterly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are present at the south-central basin. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas in NE swell exist near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, the aforementioned tropical wave and related wet weather will move across the central and western basin through Sat night. It will break up the dominance of the Atlantic ridge over the basin and allow winds and seas to diminish more across the central and western basin through Sun morning. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase again across the central basin from Sun through at least Tue as high pressure builds in the wake of the tropical wave.
… ATLANTIC OCEAN…
Refer to the Special Features section for information on a rather robust tropical wave that has its axis extending from the central Caribbean Sea northward along 76W to near 24N.
The gradient related to an expansive area of high pressure that is anchored by a 1025 mb high center north of the area near 35N48W supports moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft north of 20N between 30W and the Florida- Georgia coast, except fresh to strong E to ESE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas near the central and southeastern Bahamas, including the Turks and Caicos Islands. Farther east, fresh to strong with locally near- gale to gale NNE to NE winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft exist north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and 30W, including waters near the Canary Islands. To the south near the Cabo Verde Islands from 11N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 30W, moderate to fresh NW to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal westerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, outside the influence of the aforementioned tropical wave, winds will remain generally moderate or weaker for the next several days except west of 70W where fresh southerly winds will persist from Fri night through late Mon.
