Tropical Depression 12 Forms East Of Florida. To Become Major Hurricane.
BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2024 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — There are five systems being watched Monday morning by the National Hurricane Center. One may become another Gulf Coast event. Joyce is likely to be no threat to land at all, but Tropical Depression 12 and the yellow X to its east are both systems that deserve attention. We note, however, the early track for TD 12 does suggest it may take a trajectory that will miss the Florida Peninsula. Here’s what the NHC is saying Monday morning:
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Isaac, located several hundred miles north of the Azores, on Tropical Depression Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean, and on Tropical Depression Twelve, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: A large and disorganized area of low pressure located over the western and southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions could become conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. While interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U. S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system, the timetable for potential development has shifted later toward late week or this weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a few days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12: Tropical Depression Twelve has become better organized overnight. A 29/2338 UTC ASCAT-B overpass showed a large area of 25 to 30 kt winds, and that the center was located near the northern edge of the large convective mass. Although a 30/0334 UTC AMSR2 microwave image showed that the center was still located near the northern edge of the central convective area, curved banding has been increasing during the night, with a large area of cold cloud tops persisting. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are a consensus T-2.0/30 kt from both TAFB and SAB. Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are rising and now range from 36 to 41 kt. Based on the subjective Dvorak estimates, a 30 kt initial intensity is held for this advisory, but the depression is likely very near tropical storm strength.
The estimated initial motion of the depression is westward, or 275/7 kt. The cyclone will continue moving westward to west-northwestward for another couple days while a well-established subtropical ridge remains in place to the north of the system. A gradual turn to the northwest is expected around mid-week as a deep-layer trough over the north-central Atlantic weakens the ridge. At the end of the forecast period, an approaching upper-level trough near Bermuda will induce the cyclone to turn northward over the open waters of the central Atlantic Ocean. Some along-track spread is noted in the various track model solutions, but the models are in good agreement on the northward turn, with little cross-track spread. The latest NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the previous one, and is about halfway between the slower GFS solution and the faster ECMWF model.
Conditions are quite favorable along the path of the depression with 29 degree C sea-surface temperatures, a moist environment, and weak vertical wind shear. Given the weak shear and the gradually improving structure, the cyclone should begin to steadily intensify soon. The depression is forecast to become a hurricane in 36 to 48 hours and a major hurricane in about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies between the middle and upper end of the intensity guidance suite, near the HCCA and IVCN multi-model consensus aids. It should be noted that most of the models indicate that the cyclone’s wind and wave field will expand significantly over the next several days, and the system is forecast to become a large and powerful hurricane as it gains latitude later this week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 14.0N 34.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 14.1N 35.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 14.3N 37.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 14.9N 39.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 15.8N 41.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 17.1N 42.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 18.4N 44.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 20.7N 46.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 23.4N 48.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
