Expect Major Rain Event. Meantime, Leslie Growing In Atlantic.
BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2024 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — The system in the Gulf of Mexico that continues to develop is expected to bring heavy rains to South Florida as early as Sunday and throughout much of next week. The system, marked in orange above, does not yet have a name. Even if it does not become a named storm, forecasters say the rainfall totals may be significant. Meantime, what will soon be Hurricane Leslie is expected to reach “major” hurricane strength over the next few days. Florida remains in far left portion of its potential path. Here are highlights of Friday’s update from the National Hurricane Center:
Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and thereafter some gradual development is possible while the low moves slowly eastward or northeastward. A tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form during the early to middle part of next week if the low remains separate from a frontal boundary that is forecast to extend across the Gulf of Mexico next week. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula late this weekend into next week. Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent.
Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024. A 0421 UTC GMI microwave pass showed that Leslie has developed a well-defined low-level structure, along with what appears to be an attempt at an eyewall feature south of the center. This asymmetry in the convection is the result of continued moderate shear out of the north-northeast. ASCAT-C data from several hours ago showed several 44-kt wind barbs northwest of the center. Given the typical undersampling of this instrument, and the storm’s improved structure despite the shear, the initial intensity is estimated to be 50 kt.
The GMI and ASCAT passes helped immensely in locating Leslie’s center, which is a little farther south than previously estimated. Leslie is moving slowly westward, or 270/5 kt, along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. With the ridge expected to remain centered over the eastern Atlantic, Leslie is forecast to gradually turn west-northwestward later today and then toward the northwest in about 48 hours, with that motion continuing through the middle of next week. The NHC track forecast is near a blend of the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids, and any differences from the previous prediction should be considered negligible.
The deep-layer shear affecting Leslie is likely to abate in about 12 hours. However, there are a few environmental features that could potentially limit Leslie’s rate of intensification. Mid-level shear and dry air are shown to be the biggest negative factors in the SHIPS diagnostics, and Leslie may end up moving over Hurricane Kirk’s cold wake. Additional strengthening is still anticipated, however much of the intensity guidance has come down on this cycle. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous forecast to follow this trend, but it lies near or above the highest intensity models for most of the forecast period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 9.8N 32.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 10.1N 33.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 10.5N 34.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 11.0N 36.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 11.8N 37.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 13.0N 38.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 14.5N 40.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 17.5N 43.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 20.3N 47.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
