Tropical Storm Warning For Part Of Florida Keys In Effect.
BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2024 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — A Tropical Storm warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas in the Florida Keys as Hurricane Rafael moves to west of the area. Rafael is now expected to move into the Gulf and turn to the west or southwest, likely targeting Mexico. It’s the system to the east of Florida, however, that is getting attention Thursday. It is likely to develop in the area marked in yellow, above. While it’s too soon for a track, note the proximity to the Florida peninsula. Here’s what the National Hurricane Center is saying Thursday:
SYSTEM EAST OF FLORIDA: A trough of low pressure just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the couple of days while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next couple of days across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas. Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent.
HURRICANE RAFAEL: The hurricane continues to move away from western Cuba with an initial motion of about 305/10 kt. Rafael is located on the southwest side of mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and the Florida Peninsula. Most of the global models guidance shows this ridge building westward, albeit weakly, over the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. As a result, Rafael should turn westward with some decrease in forward speed during the next 2-3 days. Then, the majority of the models show a ridge building to the west of the system. This steering evolution would cause Rafael to turn more southward, and this is shown by the dynamical model consensus track prediction. The new official forecast is adjusted to the left of the previous NHC track but is not as far south as the consensus. The motion is likely to be quite slow during the latter part of the forecast period. There remains significant uncertainty in the future track of Rafael over the Gulf of Mexico and additional adjustments to subsequent official track forecasts are likely.
Southwesterly vertical wind shear should continue to affect Rafael, although the latest SHIPS model output does not show very strong shear over the system during the next several days. However, the numerical guidance does indicate very dry air around Rafael through the forecast period, which should induce weakening. If the system moves farther south over the Gulf than currently anticipated, it could encounter lower wind shear, and likely a more moist air mass. This could result in Rafael maintaining its intensity more than currently expected. For now, the official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and calls for weakening later in the period. This is similar to the latest model consensus.
Key Messages:
Rafael is forecast to meander over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the Dry Tortugas through this morning. Hurricane Rafael will continue to bring periods of heavy rain to western Cuba today. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain.
