HURRICANE CENTER: Four Tropical Waves And Growing Disturbance

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2025 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — The system northeast of Florida continues to develop Monday but poses absolutely no threat to the U.S. Mainland. Barring a loop what is currently “Distrubance 1” — with a 60-percent chance of developing into a named storm — is unlikely going to be anything to worry about.

There are, however, four tropical waves being watched by forecasters at the National Hurricane Center. We have two forecasts from the NHC, starting with the “Tropical Weather Outlook.”

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90): Recent satellite data indicates that the low pressure system located more than 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda is producing gale-force winds. However, the shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are still marginally favorable for further development, and an increase in thunderstorm activity could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm today or tonight. By Tuesday, this system is expected to encounter unfavorable environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for development. The system is forecast to move northeastward around 10 to 15 mph, remaining over the open central Atlantic. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent.

This is the Tropical Weather Discussion, which includes information on the tropical waves.

… TROPICAL WAVES…

A newly analyzed far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from the Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered showers are noted from 08N to 10N between 21W and 26W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 16N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 06N to 10N between 52W, and Trinidad and Tobago.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 66W from south of Puerto Rico southward into central Venezuela, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is observed fro 11N to 13N between 62W and 70W, including the ABC Islands.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 76W from southeast of Jamaica southward to over northwestern Colombia, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are occurring off northwestern Colombia. … MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near El Mamghar, then reaches southwestward to 11N21W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 11N21W to 09N23W, then from 08N26W across 05N40W to north of French Guiana at 06N52W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 100 nm north of the ITCZ between 23W and 35W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present near and up to 100 nm north of the ITCZ between 35W and 52W.

Aided by divergent flow aloft, the eastern end of East Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered to numerous heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across the southwestern Caribbean Sea near Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

… GULF OF AMERICA…

Two surface troughs are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms off Tampico, Mexico and across the eastern Gulf. A weak surface ridge runs west-southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to near the Texas-Mexico border. Moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are evident at the Bay of Campeche and Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the weak surface ridge will persist across the Gulf waters through Friday. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse each afternoon and evening over the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas can be expected elsewhere through Fri night.

… CARIBBEAN SEA…

Convergent trade winds are generating widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula eastward to near the Windward Passage. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Latest satellite derived wind data reveal fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas across the south-central and southeastern basin, including the ABC Islands. Gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted at the northwestern basin west of 84W. Light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft in NE swell exist near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate with locally fresh easterly trade winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high off northeastern Florida and lower pressure over the southwestern Caribbean will support fresh to strong trades over the central basin through the week. Locally near gale-force winds are likely off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Thu night. Moderate to rough seas are expected within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. Looking ahead, high pressure will develop and strengthen south of Bermuda Thu evening, resulting in the expansion of fresh to near-gale force winds to the Gulf of Honduras Thu night through Sat night.

… ATLANTIC OCEAN…

A surface trough extends southwestward from a 1018 mb low pressure (Invest AL90) located north of the forecast area near 33N55W to 25N68W. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 50 nm northwest, and 150 nm southeast of the trough axis. Similar conditions are seen farther southwest from 21N to 23N between 66w and the southeast Bahamas.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A subtropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1033 mb Azores High across 31N40W to a 1023 mb high off northeastern Florida.
These features are sustaining gentle to locally moderate NE to SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas north of 24N between 35W and the Florida coast/central Bahamas. Farther south from 20N to 24N between 35W and the southeast Bahamas, moderate with locally fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present. For the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 20N west of 35W, moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft exist.
Moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to NE winds and 6 to 10 ft seas dominate waters north of 17N between the Canary Islands and 35W. Gentle to moderate NW to NE winds with seas at 5 to 7 ft in moderate northerly swell are noted near the Cabo Verde Islands between the central Africa coast and 35W. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned trough will dissipate tonight into Tue, and the subtropical ridge will build westward towards the Florida peninsula. Under this weather pattern, moderate to fresh trades along with moderate to locally rough seas are expected south of 25N over the next few days, with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. Otherwise, locally strong E winds are expected north of Hispaniola Wed through Fri.