BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2025 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Tropical Depression #3 formed Friday evening north of Florida. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center, as provided to BocaNewsNow.com.
Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025
The wind circulation associated with the low pressure area east of the coast of north Florida has become stronger, with aircraft and scatterometer data indicating a well-defined circulation with maximum winds near 30 kt and a radius of maximum wind of about 80-90 n mi. The system has also developed persistent convection east and southeast of the center. Based on these developments, advisories are being started on Tropical Depression Three. The cyclone is currently being affected by 20-25 kt of southwesterly shear caused by a mid- to upper-level trough not far to the west.
The initial motion is uncertain due to some reformation of the center, with the best estimate of 360/2 kt. During the next 24 h, the cyclone should move slowly north-northwestward on the northeast side of a developing mid- to upper-level low over the northeastern Gulf. After that time, the system should be steered northward with a gradual increase in forward speed. This motion should bring the center near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. A generally northward motion should then continue until the system dissipates over land. While the guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there is considerable spread in both the forecast direction and speed, with the HWRF being a notable right outlier.
The forecast track is in best agreement with the GFS and the HCCA corrected consensus model.
The current shear is expected to diminish on Saturday as the upper-level trough moves westward away from the cyclone and the upper-level winds become southerly. However, the upper-level winds are forecast to become convergent, which may limit the amount of convection the system produces. Most of the guidance shows some development as the system approaches the coast, so the intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening to a tropical storm before the cyclone makes landfall. This forecast is a little below the intensity consensus.
Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning Saturday and continuing through Sunday morning.
- Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash flooding from Saturday through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur within more urbanized areas along the coastal plain of the Carolinas.
- The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to much of the Carolina coastline during the next couple of days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 30.8N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 31.3N 79.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 31.7N 79.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 32.4N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 33.7N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
60H 07/0600Z 35.0N 79.6W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 07/1800Z…DISSIPATED
