BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2025 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — There are four tropical waves being monitored by the National Hurricane Center Thursday, with two showing signs of convection. As July turns into August, the so-far quiet Atlantic hurricane season is expected to get busy — with the bulk of predicted systems and storms still to come.
This is the Tropical Weather Discussion for Thursday. We stress there is nothing for concern at this point, but pay attention to the tropical waves which can be plotted on the map below.
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC.
… TROPICAL WAVES…
A broad tropical wave has been relocated along 43W, south of 22N, based on recent satellite imagery, total precipitable water and wave guidance diagnostics. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 10N and between 41W and 45W.
A weak central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 18N, moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near this wave.
An central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 19N, moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is depicted at this time in association with this wave.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W, south of 18N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 16N to 19N west of 87W. The wave is also enhancing the storm activity over Central America.
… MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 15N25W to 08N52W. No significant convection is evident outside the convection described in the Tropical Waves section.
… GULF OF MEXICO (GULF OF AMERICA)…
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are active south of Louisiana this morning, and along a line from 26N90W to 24N95W. Farther south, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are active along and west of a trough over the central Bay of Campeche. Weak high pressure is supporting gentle breezes and slight seas across the basin.
For the forecast, the fairly weak high pressure will dominate the basin through the period, supporting mostly gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase along and just inland the NE Gulf coast this weekend as a weakening cold front stalls across northern Florida.
… CARIBBEAN SEA…
A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE winds off the coast of Colombia this morning, with moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere across the central Caribbean. Gentle breezes persist elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in the area of strong winds off Colombia, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere except 2 to 4 ft in the northwest Caribbean. In addition to the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section above, a few showers and thunderstorms are active off southwest Haiti.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to allow for fresh winds and rough seas over the central Caribbean through Sat, with winds pulsing to strong off the coast of Colombia.
Generally moderate winds and seas will prevail elsewhere. A tropical wave accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds, is expected to move through the tropical Atlantic waters Fri through early Sat and through the eastern Caribbean later on Sat and through Sun, and across the central Caribbean through Mon. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong winds and building seas early next week following the tropical wave over the central Caribbean.
… ATLANTIC OCEAN…
1020 mb high pressure remains centered between the central Bahamas and Bermuda near 27N71W. A weak surface trough is east of the high pressure, extending from 30N62W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. An upper trough is supporting a small clusters of showers and thunderstorms along these features, from 25N to 30N between 65W and 70W. The pattern is maintaining gentle breezes and slight seas west of 65W, except for 15 to 20 kt winds north of Hispaniola and at the entrance of the Windward Passage, as confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Farther east, a broad area of moderate to fresh trade winds were sampled by the scatterometer from 10N to 25N between 35W and 50W. A concurrent altimeter pass and a Sofar buoy showed seas around 5 to 7 ft in this area. These winds and seas are due to a relatively tight gradient between high pressure centered north of the Azores and the broad tropical wave along 43W. Drier conditions persist farther east over the eastern Atlantic due to a Saharan Air Layer in place, with moderate northerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the period, supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over the region. The northern portion of a tropical wave may bring fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds and rough seas north of the Leeward Islands Fri through Sat night, then to the waters north of Hispaniola and east of the southern Bahamas through early next week.
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