UPDATED 5 PM — NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SAYS ERIN TO HIT 115 MPH. NEW SYSTEM FORMING IN GULF OF MEXICO.
UPDATED 5 p.m. WITH LATEST FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2025 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Tropical Storm Erin formed Monday morning and is expected to become a major hurricane. Here is the afternoon update from the National Hurricane Center:
Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 500 PM AST Mon Aug 11 2025
Erin’s structure this afternoon looks like a tropical cyclone that is struggling with the nearby thermodynamic environment, with only a small patch of deep convection pulsing near the estimated center. It is possible some dry air may have been entrained into the small circulation earlier today, causing its degraded appearance. For now, subjective and objective intensity estimates haven’t changed much from the prior advisory, hovering in the 35-42 kt range, so the initial intensity is held at 40 kt this advisory.
Erin is still moving quickly off to the west, with the latest estimated motion at 270/18 kt. This general motion with a gradual slowdown in forward speed is expected over the next 48-72 h as the system remains steered by a prominent mid-level ridge to its north. This ridge is forecast to move along with the storm. Towards the end of the forecast period, the ridge should erode some and shift northeastward of Erin, which should allow the cyclone to begin gaining latitude by 120 h. The deterministic track guidance generally agrees on this track evolution, and was only a little faster than the prior cycle. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one, and lies closest to a blend of the latest 12z GFS and ECMWF forecasts (GFEX). However, it should be noted that spread in the ensemble solutions starts to increase substantially by the end of the forecast period, likely related to the magnitude of ridging that remains poleward of Erin in five days.
As mentioned in the prior advisory, while vertical wind shear over Erin is forecast to remain low for the next 3-4 days, the thermodynamic environment is less favorable in the short-term, with sea-surface temperatures between 26-27C, and plenty of stable stratocumulus clouds along the forecast path of the storm. Nonetheless, most of the hurricane-regional models show Erin slowly intensifying during this period. As the storm moves into warmer sea-surface temperatures after 48 h, a faster rate of intensification is anticipated, as long as the shear remains low and if Eric is able to mix out some of the dry air in its vicinity. The intensity guidance is actually a little higher than the previous cycle beyond 60 h, but the latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the prior one, showing Erin becoming a hurricane in 60 h and a major hurricane in 120 h. This forecast is now a little lower than HAFS-A/B, HMON, and HWRF at the end of the forecast. There are some indications there might some northwesterly shear impinging on the cyclone in 96-120 h, so I elected to stay under these aids for this cycle.
KEY MESSAGES:
- It is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, Erin may bring to the northern Leeward Islands, Bermuda, or the east coast of the United States. As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, it is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 17.4N 30.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 17.4N 33.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 17.3N 37.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 17.1N 40.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 17.3N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 17.8N 47.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 18.5N 50.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 20.0N 55.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 22.0N 60.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
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OTHER SYSTEMS ON THE MAP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025
For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Storm Erin, located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands in the eastern tropical Atlantic.
Northwestern Atlantic: A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently located a few hundred miles to the south-southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada. While current shower and thunderstorm activity with the system remains limited, this system is drifting over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and some tropical or subtropical development could occur over the next day or two. By the middle of this week, the system is expected to move northward over cooler waters, ending its chances for further tropical development. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent.
Central Atlantic (AL96): A weak surface trough of low pressure located over the central Atlantic is interacting with an upper-level trough, producing scattered disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Significant development of this system appears unlikely over the next few days as the system drifts generally northward, remaining over the central Atlantic.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent.
Northeastern Gulf: A weak surface trough in the northeastern Gulf near the Florida Panhandle is associated with a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While development of this system is not anticipated before it moves inland, locally heavy rainfall could produce flash-flooding along portions of the Florida Panhandle over the next day or so. For more information of the rainfall hazards related to this system, please see the products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days…low…near 0 percent.
