HURRICANE CENTER: Tropical Depression May Form East Of Florida Within Days

UPDATE AT 5 p.m. — New System Continues To Develop. Erin’s “Life Threatening” Surf To Hit East Coast This Week.

UPDATED AT 5 p.m.

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2025 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — The National Hurricane Center Monday says the new system developing southeast of Florida has a 50 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression within days. While the orange on the official map, above, looks ominous for Florida, we remind you that the oval shows where a system may develop but not necessarily a direction of travel.

Meantime, Hurricane Erin is a Category Four storm early Monday with a huge wind field. Forecaster say “life threatening” surf and rip currents are likely to affect the east coast later this week.

We start with the potential tropical depression, followed by the latest Hurricane Erin forecast:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico (America):

Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Erin, located near the Southeast Bahamas.

Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing limited disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form toward the end of the week. This system should move westward to west-northwestward at about 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic and approach the vicinity of the Leeward Islands on Friday.

• Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
• Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent.

HURRICANE ERIN

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Erin’s cloud pattern has become somewhat less organized than earlier today, likely as a result of some dry air intrusion over the northwestern portion of the circulation and increased northerly shear. An AMSR microwave image from the GCOM satellite showed the dry air intrusion which is consistent with the presence of arc clouds emanating northwestward from the system. The northerly shear has also begun to restrict the outflow to the north of Erin. The intensity is held at 120 kt for now, pending observations from another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft in a few hours. This intensity estimate is also consistent with a blend of objective values from UW-CIMSS.

After a west-northwestward wobble earlier today, the hurricane has resumed its northwest course with a motion estimate of 310/9 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains basically unchanged. Over the next 72 hours or so, Erin should turn northward and move through a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and on the western side of a mid-level anticyclone. Later in the forecast period, an approaching mid-level trough should cause Erin to accelerate northeastward over the northern Atlantic.

The model guidance and low-level water vapor imagery suggests that the dry air incursion into Erin is probably temporary. However, given the degraded cloud pattern and the less conducive shear over the system, not much additional strengthening is likely. In any event since the system will remain over warm waters for at least the next 72 hours, Erin will likely retain major hurricane status through the middle of the week. The official intensity forecast is at the high end of the model guidance.
Erin’s continued expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected over portions of Hispaniola this evening, and through Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos, the southeast Bahamas, and the easternmost central Bahamas. Flash and urban flooding are possible.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands and in the southeast Bahamas through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas tonight through Tuesday.
3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U. S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags. 4. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday where Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watches are in effect. Interests in Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Erin as strong winds are possible beginning on Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 24.0N 71.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 24.9N 71.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 26.5N 72.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 28.4N 73.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 30.5N 73.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 32.7N 73.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 34.8N 71.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 38.0N 64.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 41.0N 56.5W 75 KT 85 MPH