BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2025 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Tropical Storm Fernand continues to churn east of Florida but is not expected to become much of anything. The story, however, may be different for the system marked by the orange x, above. We remind you that ovals indicate where a system may form, but not necessarily a direction of travel. We have the latest on both from the National Hurricane Center:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 420 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025
For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico (America):
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the the system east of the Windward Islands (AL99).
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fernand, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.
East of the Windward Islands (AL99): Data from the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the system located near the Windward Islands does not have a closed low-level circulation. However, the system is still producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms and winds to near gale force, and these conditions are expected to affect the Windward and Leeward Islands tonight and Monday. The system is expected to reach the central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday, where conditions are forecast to become less favorable for additional development. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent.
TROPICAL STORM FERNAND
Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 PM AST Sun Aug 24 2025
Fernand continues to become better organized on satellite imagery with a more circular central dense overcast and a curved banding feature in the southern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates are slightly higher, so the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt. Further intensification is anticipated during the next day or so while Fernand remains in a warm water and light shear environment, tempered by plentiful environmental dry air. Around Tuesday, shear should increase, along with a decrease in SSTs. This should cause weakening, and the storm will likely become post- tropical on Wednesday. No significant change to the previous forecast was made, and the latest NHC prediction is close to a blend of the previous one and the intensity model consensus.
The initial motion is 025/11 kt. The storm is likely to move to the north-northeast then northeast at a faster forward speed during the next day or two as the steering flow gradually shifts from the subtropical ridge to the mid-latitude southwesterlies. There is more spread in the model guidance than the last cycle, seemingly due to the forecast depth of the storm. Generally the models are a little slower, perhaps because Fernand isn’t expected to be as strong (and presumably won’t feel faster upper-level flow as much). The new NHC forecast follows the trend of the guidance, a bit slower than the past advisory, and just south of the HFIP Corrected Consensus model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 31.8N 59.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 33.2N 58.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 35.1N 57.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 37.6N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 40.0N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 43.0N 49.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
72H 27/1800Z…DISS
