BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2025 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — There is now a red oval on the National Hurricane Center’s storm tracking map. That means a tropical depression is likely to form within days. While the oval indicates where a system may form — and not necessarily a direction of travel — early signs point to the developing system moving in a northwesterly direction. We share the Sunday afternoon update from the NHC, followed by a look at the latest tropical waves being watched:
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico (America):
Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although dry and stable air is expected to limit development during the next day or so, gradual development is anticipated thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter part of this week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent.
…TROPICAL WAVES…
The axis of a far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 01N to 20N, with a 1012 mb low along the axis near 11N30W. This system is moving westward at about 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection depicted from 05N to 17N between 28W and 37W. Although dry and stable air is expected to limit development during the next couple of days, gradual development is anticipated thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter part of this week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours and a high chance within the next 7 days.
The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 01N to 20N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found from 15N to 17.5N between 44W and 46W.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W south of 20N. It is moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along and east of the wave axis over the eastern Caribbean.
