Two ADDITIONAL Systems Watched…
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2025 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Tropical Storm Gabrielle formed Wednesday southeast of Florida, as two additional systems are now being watched by the National Hurricane Center. We start with the Gabrielle forecast and track, followed by the additional systems being monitored:
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 17 2025
Satellite imagery this morning indicates that the large system is not well-organized, with an elongated circulation oriented from north-northwest to south-southeast containing a few embedded swirls. The advisory center is a mean center of those swirls, with any associated convection well east of the position due to southwesterly shear. While it wouldn’t appear so from conventional satellite data, a recent scatterometer pass indicates upwards of 40-kt winds present, generally northeast and southeast of the center of circulation. Although the system is at best marginally well defined, there is enough data to support an initial intensity of 40 kt, and the depression is named Gabrielle.
Little strengthening is anticipated over the next 48 hours as Gabrielle faces an unfavorable shear environment from an upper-level trough and a possible center re-formation, and the forecast intensity remains nearly steady through Friday. By this weekend, a more conducive environment is anticipated, which should allow for gradual intensification. Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by 96 hours. The NHC intensity forecast remains fairly similar to the previous forecast cycle, but it should be noted that there remains considerable spread in the solutions and overall forecast intensity confidence is low.
Gabrielle is well away from land and about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Windward Islands. The current estimated motion is north-northwestward, but this is highly uncertain as the center could be re-forming to the north. The system is forecast to move northwestward to west-northwestward due to the subtropical ridge for the next several days. While the forecast has been adjusted to the north from the previous one, this is almost exclusively due to the jump in the initial position. This is a highly uncertain forecast until a better defined center forms. Based on the recent trends, this system should pass well east and north of the Windward and Leeward Islands, but interests in Bermuda should monitor forecasts during the next several days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 17.5N 46.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 19.5N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 20.8N 50.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 21.8N 52.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 22.7N 54.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 23.5N 56.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 24.7N 58.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 27.4N 60.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 30.0N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS
East-Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, and any development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central portion of the tropical Atlantic. Regardless of development, this system will continue to bring areas of heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands through Thursday.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of west Africa by Friday. Some slow development of this system is possible as it moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic this weekend into early next week.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.
