OTHER SYSTEMS DEVELOPING EAST OF FLORIDA…
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2025 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Tropical Storm Gabrielle poses no immediately threat to Florida, but the system is expected to eventually pack winds of up to 90 miles per hour as it meanders through the Atlantic. On its tail: another system that is developing, as well as several tropical waves. We start with the Gabrielle update for Thursday, followed by the “yellow X,” and then a look at other activity.
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 18 2025 Gabrielle continues to struggle this morning as a pronounced swirl of low-level clouds is unable to muster up much in the way of deep convection near its center. Gabrielle’s poor structure is due to ongoing westerly vertical wind shear and a significant amount of dry air entrainment that is infiltrating its circulation. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on recent scatterometer data of at least 40 kt, but this value remains above the latest satellite intensity estimates.
Atmospheric conditions are expected to remain hostile for a couple more days, meaning Gabrielle is likely maintain its current intensity or weaken during that time. It is even possible it could decay into a non-convective post-tropical low for a time. Assuming it survives, most guidance suggests that the storm will move into more conducive conditions that persist into early next week, allowing Gabrielle to organize and strengthen as it tracks north to northeastward. The NHC intensity forecast is near the low end of the guidance envelope for the first 3 days, but lies closer to the middle of the guidance at days 4 and 5.
Gabrielle’s more erratic track over the past 24-48 hours has now smoothed out over the past 12-24 hours with a west-northwestward motion at 13 kt. This west-northwest to northwest motion should persist over the next few days as the storm is steered primarily by a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. A turn toward the north or northeast is forecast to occur late this weekend and early next week when Gabrielle rounds the western periphery of the ridge and a frontal system approaches from the west. The NHC track forecast was adjusted just west of track given the guidance’s more westerly consensus of a weaker system inside the next 48 hours. Gabrielle’s forward motion is a little faster as well, especially between hours 48-120 when it should accelerate thanks to increased steering flow on the western side of the Atlantic ridge.
Confidence in the long range forecast remains low, and interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle over the next several days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 20.3N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 21.1N 53.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 22.1N 55.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 23.2N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 24.4N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 25.9N 60.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 27.7N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 31.4N 61.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 36.5N 56.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico (America):
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gabrielle, located in the central Tropical Atlantic.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave along the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the weekend through the middle of next week while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.
…TROPICAL WAVES…
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 23N southward, moving west around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 13N-17N between 26W-31W.
A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 73W from 22N southward across Hispaniola to western Venezuela, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is occurring from 15N-18N between 68W-74W.
A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 89W from 20N southward, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 16N-21N west of 83W.
