BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2025 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Tropical Storm Gabrielle is now expected to pack winds of up to 105 miles per hour. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the storm — and several developing waves — as we head into the weekend. Here is the Friday afternoon update from the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 PM AST Fri Sep 19 2025
Gabrielle’s cloud pattern has changed significantly since the last advisory. The previously noted shear pattern has changed to a curved convective band pattern, and the previously exposed low-level center has become at least partly covered by cirrus clouds spreading westward from the convection. This change suggests that the storm is starting to encounter the forecast decrease in vertical shear. At this time, this change has not led to an increase in the various satellite intensity estimates, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt.
The initial motion is 300/10 kt. Gabrielle is on the southwest side of the subtropical ridge, and during the next 2-3 days it is expected to turn northward between the ridge to the east and and a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States and the far western Atlantic. The track guidance remains fairly tightly clustered during this time, although the consensus models have shifted a little to the left since the last advisory. This part of the new forecast track is nudged a little to the left, but still lies east of the consensus models. After 3 days, Gabrielle is expected to recurve into the westerlies and accelerate northeastward. The guidance shows more spread during this time, with the GFS being to the left/north and faster than most of the guidance, while the ECMWF is to the right/south and slower.
Despite the spread, the consensus models and the center of the guidance envelope are have changed little since the last advisory for this part of the forecast. Thus, the new forecast is similar to, but slightly slower than, the previous forecast. The reliable track models still show Gabrielle’s center passing at least 130 n mi east of Bermuda in 60-72 h. However, interests on the island should continue to monitor Gabrielle’s progress since NHC’s average track error at 72 h is about 90 n mi, and hazards can extend well away from the center. There remains a 20-25 percent chance of tropical-storm-force winds occurring on Bermuda.
Gabrielle is now forecast to be in a light-to-moderate shear environment for the next 72 h, which should allow strengthening that would be tempered mainly by occasional entrainment of dry air. The new intensity forecast has been tweaked a bit to show a peak intensity of 90 kt at 72 h. Extratropical transition should be underway by 120 h, and could be complete by that time if the cyclone takes a more northward track similar to the GFS. However, a more southward track similar to the ECMWF would delay transition, and based on the uncertainty the new intensity forecast keeps the system as a tropical cyclone at 120 h.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday and pass east of Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Interests on Bermuda should monitor Gabrielle’s forecasts since it is too soon to specify the magnitude of potential wind and rainfall impacts.
- Swells generated by Gabrielle are expected to reach Bermuda tonight and build through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 22.4N 56.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 23.5N 58.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 25.0N 59.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 26.8N 60.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 28.6N 61.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 30.6N 61.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 33.0N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 38.1N 51.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 42.1N 38.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
YELLOW X
Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow development of this system is possible through the middle to latter part of next week while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.
…TROPICAL WAVES…
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 20W from 03N to 16N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm either side of the wave from 06N to 09N, and within 180 nm west of the wave from 10N to 14N.
A central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 36W from 06N to 21N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within either side of the wave from 06N to 10N.
A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 75W south of 21N to inland Colombia near 09N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the Windward Passage, and the wave and eastern Jamaica.
