BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2025 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — The odds of two storms forming east of Florida are now 90-percent and 60-percent. Those are the numbers assigned to the two systems on the map above from the National Hurricane Center. While Gabrielle poses no threat to land, the two developing systems in red and orange are systems to watch. We remind readers that an oval indicates where a system may form, but not necessarily a direction of travel.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico (America):
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.
- Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93): Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the western tropical Atlantic.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent.
- East of the Leeward Islands (AL94): A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers, thunderstorms and gusty winds across much of the Windward and Leeward Islands. This wave is expected to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday. The system is then expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it reaches the southwestern Atlantic near the Bahamas late this week, and a tropical depression could form when the disturbance is in that region. Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent.
…ADDITIONAL WAVES…
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W from 14N southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 02N to 05N between 25W and 33W.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 88W from the northern Yucatan Peninsula southward across Belize, Honduras and El Salvador to the East Pacific. It is moving west at 5 ft. Scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are occurring across the Yucatan Channel, northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and at the Gulf of Honduras.
