As Humberto and Gabrielle Remain Off Shore, A Developing System May Get Close…
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2025 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — A developing system in the Atlantic may form very close to the State of Florida, then trek up the coast to possibly come ashore somewhere between North Florida and the Carolinas. That’s some of the very early modeling for the system currently known as AL94. We remind readers that an oval indicates where a system may form and not necessarily a direction of travel, but in this case, the oval is very close to the “spaghetti models” reviewed by the National Hurricane Center.
We start with the afternoon update on the developing system, followed by the latest on Humberto.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Gabrielle, located several hundred miles west of the Azores, and on Tropical Storm Humberto, over the subtropical central Atlantic.
Central Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Atlantic (AL94): Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in association with a a tropical wave located near Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands. An area of low pressure is expected to form along the wave tonight or early Friday when it moves near the southeast Bahamas. This low is expected to become a tropical depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest Bahamas late Friday or over the weekend and then track northwestward or northward over the southwestern Atlantic.
Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are likely across that region during the next couple of days. While there is significant uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system, the chances of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts for a portion of the southeast U. S. coast are increasing. Interests in that area should monitor the progress of the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent.
Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 PM AST Thu Sep 25 2025
Humberto continues to gradually gain strength over the central Atlantic. Deep convection has been increasing over the center, and the cloud pattern is more symmetric than it was earlier today. This is an indication that the wind shear around the storm is lessening.
Recent microwave images indicate that an inner core appears to be forming, and an earlier ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of about 45 kt. Based on the improving satellite presentation, the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt. This value is also near the average of the latest satellite intensity estimates. The 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on the ASCAT data.
Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next few days as the storm moves into a more favorable environment of light winds aloft and high moisture. Given that Humberto is relatively compact and an increasingly symmetric system, these conditions should cause it to become a hurricane on Friday and a major hurricane over the weekend. Less favorable environmental conditions should cause some weakening early next week. This prediction remains in line with the latest HCCA and IVCN consensus models.
The storm has jogged a little to the north today, but the overall motion is northwestward at 5 kt. Humberto remains embedded in weak steering currents on the south side of a narrow and weak subtropical high over the central Atlantic. This pattern should keep the storm moving slowly to the west-northwest or northwest during the next day or two. After that time, Humberto is expected to become increasingly steered by a much stronger high over the western Atlantic, which should cause the storm to accelerate. The NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus and Google Deep Mind models. This forecast keeps Humberto over the open central and western subtropical Atlantic during the next several days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 21.9N 57.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 22.3N 57.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 22.5N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 22.7N 59.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 23.0N 60.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 23.6N 62.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 24.6N 64.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 28.0N 68.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 31.6N 69.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
