BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2025 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — The National Hurricane Center’s latest tracking map suggests that neither Imelda nor Humberto are issues — or will be issues — for Florida. But… pay special attention to the tropical waves that are being watched far east of the Eastern Seaboard. Here is the afternoon update from the NHC:
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Sep 30 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico (America), Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC.
… SPECIAL FEATURES…
Hurricane Humberto is centered near 33.0N 69.9W at 30/1500 UTC or 260 nm W of Bermuda, moving NNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas near the center of Humberto are near 36 ft (11 m). Humberto is a sheared hurricane with most of the deep convection over the eastern semicircle. Humberto is moving toward the north- northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn to the north and north- northeast is expected today, followed by a much faster east- northeast motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto will pass west of, and then north of Bermuda today and Wednesday. Continued weakening is forecast and Humberto is expected to become a strong extratropical system on Wednesday. Swells from Humberto are likely to cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip current conditions, affecting beaches of the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast of the United States over the next several days. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Hurricane Imelda is centered near 29.2N 75.9W at 30/1800 UTC or 600 nm WSW of Bermuda, moving ENE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are near 23 ft (7 m) just north of the center. The observed convection consists of the numerous moderate to strong north of 28N between 75W and 80W. A generally east-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the hurricane should continue to move away from the Bahamas today and be approaching Bermuda Wednesday afternoon. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Swells generated by Hurricane Imelda and Hurricane Humberto are affecting the Bahamas and are currently spreading to much of the U. S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website – https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Imelda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at http://www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Humberto and Imelda.
… TROPICAL WAVES…
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 18W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 09N to 13N and east of 23W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated to have its axis along 47W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 21N and between 38W and 56W.
… MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 14N17W, and continues southwestward to 09N27W and westward to 10N49W. The ITCZ extends from 10N49W to 12N60W. Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the convection near the monsoon trough/ITCZ.
The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen generally S of 13N and W of 76W.
… GULF OF AMERICA…
A small and weak 1012 mb low continues over the central Gulf near 23N94W, with a trough extending northeastward to 25N91W and southwestward to near 21N95W. Moderate NE winds flowing around Hurricane Imelda are occurring in the Gulf N of 25N and E of 90W.
Gentle to moderate or weaker winds persist across the rest of the basin. Slight seas prevail across the Gulf.
For the forecast, a weak low pressure and surface trough in the SW Gulf will continue to drift southwestward over the next couple of days and gradually dissipate. Fresh N-NE winds are forecast over the western and SW Gulf through midweek. Moderate to fresh cyclonic winds will prevail across the eastern Gulf and Florida Straits today. Otherwise, modest high pressure will lead to moderate or lighter north winds and slight to moderate seas through midweek. A stronger high pressure building southward through the eastern United States will lead to increasing NE winds, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the NE Gulf Thu through Sat. Fresh to near gale-force NW winds and rough seas will pulse off Veracruz late Thu and Fri.
… CARIBBEAN SEA…
Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane Humberto positioned well north of the Caribbean have disrupted the usual north-south pressure gradient. As a result, moderate to fresh trades are confined to east of about 75W, and light and variable winds are west of 75W. Seas are 3 to 6 ft east of 75W and 1 to 3 ft west of 75W.
For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas over the eastern and central Caribbean through midweek. The pressure gradient will then weaken leading to moderate or lighter winds and seas through the Sat. However, northerly swell from tropical cyclones Humberto and Imelda will reach the passages of the NE Caribbean allowing for rough seas late Fri and into the weekend.
… ATLANTIC OCEAN…
Please read the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Humberto centered SW of Bermuda and on Tropical Storm Imelda located N of the NW Bahamas.
These two tropical cyclones are dominating the weather west of 60W. Associated seas of 8 ft and greater cover the area north of 24N and west of 61W. East of 61W, a 1024 mb high center is analyzed near 30N37W. A surface trough is analyzed from 30N44W to 24N51W, with scattered moderate convection occurring from 23N to 28N between 44W and 50W. A broad subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the basin. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of a line from 31N25W to the Leeward Islands and north of the monsoon trough. Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong N winds and moderate to rough seas are noted off Morocco and NW Mauritania. Another area of fresh to locally strong E winds and seas of 6-8 ft is occurring from 13N to 20N between 38W and 48W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Humberto is near 33.0N 69.9W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving north-northwest at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Humberto will move to 34.8N 69.1W this evening, become extratropical and move to 36.2N 66.4W Wed morning, weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 37.0N 61.5W Wed evening, and dissipate Thu morning. Hurricane Imelda is near 29.1N 76.6W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving northeast at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Imelda will move to 29.8N 74.6W this evening, 31.0N 71.0W Wed morning, 32.6N 65.2W Wed evening, 34.3N 60.0W Thu morning, become post-tropical and move to 36.7N 53.9W Thu evening, and weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 39.3N 50.4W Fri morning. Imelda will change little in intensity as it moves to 43.6N 46.4W by early Sat. Strong to gale-force winds and rough to high seas expected north of 26N and east of 73W shifting eastward Wed night through early Fri. Rough seas will persist over much of the basin through the weekend.
