Long Range Forecasts Still Diverge. But Turn To North, Northeast Possible.
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2025 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to reach hurricane strength within days, and then potentially turn to the north. Whether it becomes a Florida issue remains to be seen — the long range models used by the National Hurricane Center are diverging. Here is the Friday morning update from the NHC:
Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
For all intents and purposes, Melissa is nearly stationary over the north-central Caribbean Sea. The estimated center has been adjusted a bit based on scatterometer data from last evening, but wind direction data from buoy 42058 also suggest that the circulation could still be a bit elongated. There are several deep convective bursts embedded within the overall cloud canopy, although banding features are not particularly well defined at the moment. An Air Force Reserve mission should provide a more accurate estimate of Melissa’s center location and intensity in a couple of hours, and for now the estimated intensity is maintained at 40 kt.
With Melissa located within a break in the mid-level ridge, the steering currents remain weak. Track models suggest that some meandering or a slow northeast to north drift is likely to occur over the next 24 hours. By Saturday, there will likely be just enough mid-level ridging building north of the storm to cause Melissa to begin moving very slowly westward, with that motion continuing through Tuesday. What’s most noteworthy is that several reliable models, including the ECMWF, HCCA, and Google DeepMind ensemble mean have shifted southward during this period. The new NHC forecast reflects this slight shift, but it’s important to note that several other models continue to show Melissa’s center getting perilously close to or over Jamaica in 2-3 days. A slow recurvature is forecast on days 4 and 5, with Melissa potentially moving near western Jamaica and approaching southeastern Cuba by early Wednesday. Interestingly, the 00z ECMWF keeps Melissa south or southwest of Jamaica through day 5, but it appears to be an outlier compared to the other guidance.
Strong westerly shear continues to affect Melissa, but there are some indications that the shear could gradually decrease over the next 24-36 hours. At the same time, high ocean heat content values and stronger upper-level divergence should help to induce strengthening. There is fairly strong agreement among the intensity models that a period of rapid intensification could begin in about 24 hours, and the NHC forecast shows Melissa becoming a hurricane in 36 hours. Although this is an aggressive forecast given Melissa’s current structure, several models are even stronger than the NHC forecast at that forecast time. There is less model agreement on Melissa’s intensity after 48 hours. In order to maintain continuity with previous forecasts, the NHC prediction is near the top end of the guidance envelope and close to the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Other models show flatlining or decreasing intensity after 48 hours, but that is likely due to scenarios that account for more land interaction.
Key Messages: 1. Jamaica: Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides, and storm surge continues to increase for Jamaica.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in Jamaica later today or on Saturday.
- Haiti: Heavy rainfall will result in catastrophic flash flooding and landslides across southwestern Haiti by this weekend into early next week. Extensive damage to roads and buildings is expected, potentially isolating communities for an extended period of time. This is a life-threatening situation and immediate preparations to protect life and property should be taken. Strong winds could also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti.
- Remainder of Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall could also produce significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern Dominican Republic. Interests in Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa since the risk of heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and storm surge appears to be increasing.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 16.0N 75.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 16.1N 75.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 16.6N 75.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 16.9N 75.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 16.9N 76.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 16.9N 77.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 16.9N 78.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 17.6N 78.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 19.8N 77.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
