BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2025 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — As Hurricane Melissa rages after attacking Jamaica, there are two new tropical waves being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. There’s nothing to worry about right now, but they are east of Florida — and at least one is showing signs of convection. Here is the mid-day update from the National Hurricane Center:
ropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Oct 29 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC.
… SPECIAL FEATURES…
Major Hurricane Melissa is centered near 20.3N 76.1W at 29/0900 UTC or 50 nm W of Guantanamo Cuba, moving NE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are near 28 ft (8.5 M) just north of the center. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to cross eastern Cuba this morning, move across the southeastern or central Bahamas later today, and pass near or to the west of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night. Melissa is expected to remain a powerful hurricane when it moves across the Bahamas later today and passes near Bermuda on Thursday night.
There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba this morning. Peak storm surge heights could reach 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa made landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Minor coastal flooding is possible in bays and inlets along the north coast of eastern Cuba.
Storm surge of 5 to 8 ft above normally dry ground is possible in the southeastern Bahamas today, and 2 to 4 ft above normally dry ground is possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands today. Minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast of Haiti.
Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next day or so, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are beginning to reach the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and will spread toward Bermuda later this week. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website – https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at http://www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold over the northwestern Gulf will progress southeastward over the region through Thu morning. Widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas will occur in the wake of the front through Thu evening. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the wake of the front in the NW Gulf through this morning. Winds will reach gale force along the coast of Mexico offshore of Tampico this morning and spread southward to Veracruz tonight. Conditions will improve early Thu night.
… TROPICAL WAVES…
A tropical wave has its axis along 41W from 04N to 15N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 06N to 17N between 35W and 50W.
A tropical wave has its axis along 55W south of 12N, moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N to 21N between 50W and 56W.
… MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic basin off the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and extends southwestward to 11N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 06N30W to 08N40W. Another ITCZ segment extends from 08N42W to 07N53W. Widely scattered moderate convection is active from 02N to 12N between 20W and 37W.
GULF OF AMERICA…
Please see the Special Features section for details on a gale warning.
A strong cold front extends from SE Louisiana to NE Mexico near 25N97W. A line of heavy showers is within 120 nm ahead of the front. A tight pressure gradient between the front and strong high pressure over NW United States supports gust to gale force winds along Texas coastal waters. Moderate or weaker winds, and slight to moderate seas are ahead of the front elsewhere across the basin.
For the forecast, the strong cold over the northwestern Gulf will progress southeastward over the region through Thu morning. Widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas will occur in the wake of the front through Thu evening. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the wake of the front in the NW Gulf through this morning. Winds will reach gale force along the coast of Mexico offshore of Tampico this morning and spread southward to Veracruz tonight. Conditions will improve early Thu night. Another cold front may enter the NW Gulf Sun.
CARIBBEAN SEA…
Attention remains focused on Major Hurricane Melissa located near 20.3N 76.1W at 5 AM EDT. Please read the Special Features section for all the information related to this powerful hurricane.
Elsewhere across the Caribbean winds are moderate to fresh in speeds. Seas with these winds are 4-7 ft.
For the forecast, Melissa will move N of the area today, with marine conditions in the north-central Caribbean, improving tonight. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean tonight and extend from central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras by Thu evening before dissipating early Fri. Otherwise, trade winds will freshen over the E Caribbean Sat evening.
ATLANTIC OCEAN…
Please read the Special Features section for the details related to major Hurricane Melissa.
Major Hurricane Melissa is near 20.3N 76.1W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving northeast at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 960 mb. To the north of Melissa, a cold front extends from 31N70W to 26N80W, generating showers over the northern offshore waters between 60W and 74W. A broad surface ridge covers the remainder subtropical waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, Melissa will move to 21.9N 75.1W this afternoon, 25.0N 73.0W Thu morning, 29.0N 69.9W Thu afternoon, 34.2N 64.8W Fri morning, 40.3N 58.1W Fri afternoon, and weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 46.3N 51.0W Sat morning. A cold front over the NW waters will lift N of the area today. Fresh to strong S to SW winds ahead of the front will continue to affect the northern offshore waters N of 29N to 60W tonight. A new cold front will push offshore of the southeastern U. S. early Thu morning, leading to increasing winds and building seas over the western Atlantic ahead of Melissa through late Fri morning. Rough seas associated with the passage of Melissa gradually subside by the weekend.
