BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2024 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — The National Hurricane Center Friday afternoon initiated tracking on a wave that may develop, and could follow a path of significant interest to South Florida. We stress it’s early — very early — in the life of this system. But, it’s never too early to know that something is out there and may become a South Florida issue.
Here is the mid-afternoon update from the National Hurricane Center with the addition of ALL the tropical waves being watched by forecasters as of 2 p.m. Friday.
For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
- Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles: An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave during the next several days. Some development of this system will be possible while it approaches the Lesser Antilles during the early to middle part of next week and moves generally west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles toward the latter part of the week.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.
.. TROPICAL WAVES…
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 21W, south of 22N, moving west 10-15 kt. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 34W, south of 21N, moving westward 10-15 kt. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.
A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 78W, south of 21N, moving westward at 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate convection, likely enhanced by the Colombian/Panamanian Low and the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is noted in the SW Caribbean from the coast of Panama north to 12N west of 77W.
… MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Dakar, Senegal and continues southwestward to 09N47W. The ITCZ extends from 09N47W to the coast of Guyana near 06N58W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 13N and between 22W and 41W.
GULF OF MEXICO…
A surface trough located inland over Texas and Louisiana continues to support scattered moderate convection across the NW Gulf, north of 27N and west of 88W. Elsewhere, weak surface troughs are in the NE Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Surface ridging prevails, providing light to gentle E Winds and seas of 2-4 ft.
For the forecast, the high pressure ridge will remain in place across the basin through Tue night allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off NW Yucatan over the next several days.
CARIBBEAN SEA…
Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above.
Recent scatterometer data depicts ongoing fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean. Seas have built to 6-8 ft in this area of wind. Elsewhere, trades are gentle to moderate with 3-6 ft seas.
Weather conditions continue to support the potential for heavy rainfall over the southwest Caribbean, including western Panama and Costa Rica today through Sat, and over eastern Nicaragua and northeast Honduras Sat into Sun. This rain could be significant, causing flooding and possible mudslides. Please refer to your local and national meteorological agency for details.
For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will build over the eastern Caribbean through Sun, following a tropical wave that will move through the western Caribbean. This pattern will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean into the middle of next week. Expect fresh E to SE winds and building seas over the northwest Caribbean early in the week following the tropical wave, with locally strong winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Honduras Sun night.
ATLANTIC OCEAN…
A surface trough located beneath a broad upper level low near the central Bahamas is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms from 24N to 29N between 68W and 78W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a classic summer Bermuda-Azores high centered along 31N. This morning’s satellite scatterometer data shows light to gentle trades. Seas are 4-6 ft across the open Atlantic, and less than 4 ft west of the Bahamas and in the Straits of Florida.
For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will dominate the forecast waters through Sat, then will shift eastward ahead of a weak cold front moving off the Carolina coast. The front will stall of northeast Florida Sun, then dissipate Mon. The pattern will support fresh to strong E winds off Hispaniola through Sun, and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere into Tue. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase northeast of the Leeward Islands by late Tue associated with an approaching tropical wave.
