AFTERNOON UPDATE: Now 50-Percent Chance Of Development. Don’t Panic, But Be Aware…
BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2024 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — While we continue to stress that it is very early in the forecast track, the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a disturbance in the Atlantic which as of the 8 a.m. Monday update has a 50-percent chance of becoming a named system over the next seven days. The next name to be used is “Chris.” The system remains on a path that hits Florida head-on. While it’s too soon to be overly concerned, emergency planners say it’s never too early to devise your evacuation plan — or at the very least stock up on non-perishable food and other supplies.
Here is the Monday afternoon update from the National Hurricane Center, followed by the “tropical outlook” which takes a look at other waves forming in the region.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
- Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas: An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave during the next day or two. Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas.
Interests in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U. S. should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.
… TROPICAL WAVES…
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 48W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 kt. A few showers are present near the trough axis south of 13N.
… MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 12N35W and to 11N51W. The ITCZ extends from 11N51W to 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 11N and east of 24W. Similar convection is also occurring within 90 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 39W and 45W and between 50W and 57W.
GULF OF MEXICO…
High pressure over the eastern United States extends southward into the Gulf the Mexico. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in Mexico sustain moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds in the western and central Gulf. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail in the remainder of the basin. A few showers are noted in the eastern Bay of Campeche.
For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place from the eastern U. S.
across the eastern Gulf waters through Thu allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night during at least through the middle of the week due to local effects.
CARIBBEAN SEA…
A broad 1028 mb high pressure system near 37N47W extends southwestward into the Caribbean Sea, forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south-central, SW Caribbean, Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern and north-central Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends from the central Atlantic SW to the central Bahamas and is building over the eastern and central Caribbean. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean that will persist into the middle of the week. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds and building seas over the west and northwest Caribbean, with locally strong winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase northeast of the Leeward Islands Tue night through Wed associated with of an approaching strong tropical wave.
ATLANTIC OCEAN…
A stationary front extends from a 1014 mb low pressure system near 32N71W to NE Florida. A surface trough is noted a few degrees south of the front, producing scattered showers south of the boundary. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found north of 28N and between 64W and 71W.
The rest of the basin is under a broad subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic. A scatterometer satellite pass from a few hours ago captured fresh to locally strong northerly winds from 17N to 23N and east of 22W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Farther south, moderate to locally strong S-SW and seas of 7-10 ft are present south of 09N and east of 23W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present.
For the forecast west of 55W, a nearly stationary front off northeast Florida along roughly 30N will gradually dissipate through Mon. The Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge will build across the region thereafter into mid-week, supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N. Looking ahead, winds and seas associated with a vigorous tropical wave will increase northeast of the Leeward Islands Tue night into Wed, then move to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Thu.
