BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2024 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — The Tropical Depression — #7 — that was possibly going to become Tropical Storm Gordon yesterday is now showing signs of weakening. Whether it becomes anything more than a depression remains to be seen, but it’s slightly less of a concern Friday than it was Thursday. Here’s the latest on everything happening on tropical systems from the NHC:
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Seven, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine, located inland over northeastern Arkansas.
Near the Northern Leeward Islands (AL94): Satellite-derived wind data from several hours ago indicate that a small area of low pressure located less than one hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands has degenerated into a surface trough. Environmental conditions, including the proximity of dry air, do not favor development of this system while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across the northern Leeward Islands today. Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.
Offshore the Southeastern U. S.: A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U. S. coastline this weekend. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development is possible during the early part of next week while the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast. Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
The depression has an asymmetric structure due to moderate west-northwesterly shear, with the center lying west of generally shapeless convective clusters. Because there has largely been little change in the system’s organization, and there is quite a range among the subjective and objective estimates, the intensity remains 30 kt out of respect for continuity.
The initial motion is a little slower toward the west-northwest (290/12 kt). A weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the depression is becoming more pronounced, and the track guidance indicates that the system should turn westward by tonight and slow down further through much of the forecast period as it moves across the central tropical Atlantic. In fact, by days 4 and 5, an amplifying shortwave trough to the north is likely to cause the cyclone to crawl at speeds near or less than 5 kt and gradually turn northwestward. The official forecast is close to the previous prediction during the first 60 hours, but then is adjusted westward on days 3 through 5 following the latest model trends.
In terms of moisture, the environment across the tropical Atlantic has not been kind to weather systems over the past couple of months. The official forecast still allows for the possibility of the depression becoming a tropical storm today or tonight, however an even drier air mass to the west is likely to cause the cyclone to continue struggling convectively. In fact, all of the global models show the cyclone’s wind field weakening over the weekend, with the GFS suggesting the depression could degenerate into a remnant low. For now, the NHC forecast keeps the system as a tropical cyclone for the entire forecast period, but it does show weakening in a couple of days. Some recovery is possible by days 4 and 5 when the system reaches a slightly more moist and low-shear environment.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0900Z 19.0N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 19.8N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 19.7N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 19.5N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 19.3N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 19.2N 49.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 20.5N 50.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
