Somewhat Slow Now, But Expect Busy Hurricane Season To Ramp Up…
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2025 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Dexter is dead, but the two systems east of Florida continue to churn. While neither is likely Florida-bound, forecasters are saying that the so far lackluster hurricane season is about to get busy. We start this update with the latest from the forecast team at Colorado State University which tends to do quite well predicting storm activity:
”We have maintained our forecast for a slightly above-normal 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season, although noting lower-than-normal confidence with this outlook. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic have anomalously warmed over the past few weeks and are now somewhat warmer than normal. Multiple indicators anticipate likely cool ENSO neutral conditions during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Warm sea surface temperatures and ENSO neutral conditions typically provide a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. The primary reason for the uncertainty in the outlook is the high observed Caribbean shear over recent weeks. Typically, high levels of Caribbean shear in June– July are associated with less active hurricane seasons. We anticipate a slightly above- average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean for the remainder of the hurricane season. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that even one hurricane making landfall nearby results in an impactful season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”
Here is the Tropical Outlook from the National Hurricane Center for Friday:
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025
For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico (America):
Off the Southeastern United States: A weak area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina is producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur over the next day or two while it moves northeastward at 10 to 15 mph. The low is likely to merge with a front over the weekend, ending its chances for tropical or subtropical development.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent.
Central Atlantic (AL96): A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing minimal shower activity. Development of this system appears unlikely during the next day or two due to surrounding dry air, but environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive in a few days. A tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves northwestward to northward across the central tropical and subtropical Atlantic.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent
