EAST OF FLORIDA…ATLANTIC GETTING BUSY…
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2025 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — As Hurricane Erin inches closer to the United States mainland, two systems to the east of Florida are continuing to grow. One appears to be curving away from Florida, but the second system may be one to watch. We remind readers that ovals indicate where a system may form, not necessarily a direction of travel.
We start with the update on the two developing systems, followed by the Wednesday afternoon update on Hurricane Erin:
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025
For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.
Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99): Satellite-derived surface wind data from earlier today revealed that a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands lacks a closed surface circulation. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development over the next day or so while the system moves west-southwestward at around 15 mph and a short-lived tropical depression could form. By the end of the week, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent.
HURRICANE ERIN UPDATE
Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025
Erin continues to look impressive on satellite imagery, with a fairly symmetric cloud pattern and numerous convective banding features. Upper-level outflow remains well-defined over most parts of the circulation. An AMSR microwave image from just before 18Z showed a concentric eyewall structure with an outer ring of convection at a radius of 70-80 n mi from the center and an inner eyewall at a radius of about 20 n mi. The current intensity estimate is held at 95 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak classifications from TAB and SAB and objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS.
The hurricane is moving northward with a forward speed of around 12 kt. The steering scenario and track forecast reasoning have not changed from the previous advisory. Erin should move around the western and northwestern periphery of a mid-level subtropical anticyclone over the next day or so, moving between Bermuda and the U. S. east coast. After that, the system should accelerate northeastward and east-northeastward while embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies over the north Atlantic. The official forecast is close to the previous NHC prediction and is in good agreement with the NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance.
Although Erin is over warm waters with ample mid- to low-level moisture, The concentric convective ring structure of the system will likely prevent significant strengthening and the official intensity forecast now only shows a slight-short term increase in intensity, similar to the DSHIPS and LGEM guidance. Beginning in about 36 hours, the SHIPS model diagnoses a large increase in vertical wind shear so a weakening trend is anticipated from that time onward. The predicted structure of the cyclone in the global models indicates that extratropical transition should be underway in 3-4 days, while Erin passes over much cooler waters.
Erin is an usually large hurricane. For hurricanes north of 30N latitude, its tropical-storm-force wind radii are in the 75th percentile of the Atlantic basin record.
KEY MESSAGES:
- Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U. S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags.
- Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning later today and lasting through Thursday. The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads impassible.
- Tropical storm conditions are expected on Thursday along the Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along portions of the remainder of the U. S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Thursday through early Friday.
- Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and Friday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/2100Z 31.2N 73.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 33.2N 72.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 35.5N 70.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 37.5N 67.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 39.2N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 41.0N 57.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 43.1N 50.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 49.0N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/1800Z 54.0N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
