To Pack 115 MPH Winds.
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2025 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Tropical Storm Humberto is now churning in the Atlantic and expected to pack 115 mph winds over the next several days. It is joined by another system that is likely to soon become Imelda. While Humberto is unlikely to affect the eastern United States, Imelda shows early model guidance suggesting it could impact north Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina That will become more clear over the next several days. For now, we’’ll start with Humberto, followed by the “tropical outlook” from the NHC:
Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 AM AST Thu Sep 25 2025
Humberto is still a shear tropical storm this morning. Deep convection is wrapped around the eastern side of the circulation with the low-level center mostly exposed to the west of the coldest cloud tops. Objective and subjective satellite Dvorak classifications have held steady this cycle, ranging from 33 to 41 kts. The initial intensity remains at 40 kt based on the scatterometer data mentioned in the previous discussion.
The estimated motion is northwestward at 9 kt. Humberto is expected to be steered along the southern and southwestern side of a subtropical ridge centered over the western Atlantic. The track forecast becomes more complicated in the next few days due to the proximity of the tropical storm to 94L, the developing system to the west. Global models generally show Humberto moving around the western periphery of the subtropical high by the end of the forecast period, however there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the timing and location at which the storm will make that turn. The GFS and UKMet show a much faster and farther east track while the ECMWF predicts a slower and more westward track. The latest official track forecast is slower and a bit west of the previous prediction, near the center of the guidance envelope.
Humberto is expected to gradually strengthen during the next couple of days, despite the strong-to-moderate vertical wind shear. When the westerly shear relaxes over the storm in 2-3 days, more signification intensification is expected over the warm ocean waters. Most model guidance predicts Humberto will reach hurricane strength over the weekend and become a major hurricane by early next week. Few changes have been made to the NHC intensity forecast, which still lies near the FSU Superensemble prediction.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 21.2N 56.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 21.7N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 22.1N 57.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 22.6N 58.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 23.0N 59.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 23.5N 61.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 24.3N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 26.7N 66.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 30.6N 69.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico (America):
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Humberto, located several hundred miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.
Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL94): A tropical wave centered near the Dominican Republic continues to produces widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds across Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic through today. The system is then expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it reaches the southwestern Atlantic. A tropical depression is likely to form when the disturbance is in the vicinity of the Bahamas late this week. Interests in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent.
