BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2026 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — Colorado State University hurricane researchers have lowered their forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, now calling for 11 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes — all below the long-term averages of 14, seven and three. The June update, released Wednesday and obtained by BocaNewsNow.com, trims the team’s April prediction of 13 named storms and six hurricanes, and reinforces the forecast of a below-average season.
The primary driver is El Niño. The recurring climate pattern, marked by warmer-than-normal water in the eastern and central tropical Pacific, increases upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. That creates vertical wind shear, which tears apart developing storms. CSU forecasters say a moderate to strong El Niño is very likely by the peak of hurricane season, August through October. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are sending mixed signals, with near-average water in the western tropical Atlantic and cooler-than-normal water in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic.
“So far, the 2026 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 1957, 1965, 1987, 1997, 2009 and 2015 seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist at CSU and lead author of the report. All of those analog seasons featured below-average activity. The team predicts 2026 will produce about 60 percent of an average season’s activity. The report also lowers landfall probabilities: a 24 percent chance of a major hurricane striking the U.S. coastline (the 1880–2020 average is 43 percent) and an 11 percent chance for the East Coast including the Florida Peninsula, roughly half the historical average of 21 percent.
Still, researchers caution that a quiet season on paper means nothing if a storm finds your neighborhood. “It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” said CSU’s Michael Bell. The team will issue forecast updates on July 8 and August 5. Hurricane season runs through November 30.
