HURRICANE CENTER: Two Tropical Storms Churning East Of Florida

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2026 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — There are now two tropical storms being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. Both are east of Florida, neither pose a realistic threat. Here are the updates as of Friday afternoon:

Tropical Storm Gonzalo

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072026
200 PM CVT Fri Sep 25 2026

Gonzalo remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the deep convection located northeast of the elongated center. ASCAT data from around 1100 UTC revealed a large area of tropical-storm force winds located over the northeastern portion of the circulation with peak winds of around 45 kt. Those peak winds were the basis for increasing the intensity to 45 kt on the 1200 UTC intermediate advisory, and the initial intensity for this advisory remains unchanged.

The initial motion estimate is north-northwest or 345/9 kt. A mid-level trough over the eastern Atlantic is expected to steer Gonzalo north-northwestward to northward today with the center passing near or over the easternmost Cabo Verde Islands. A north-northwestward heading should then continue over the weekend with some reduction in forward speed as the system weakens and becomes more vertically shallow. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies closest to the HFIP corrected consensus aid.

Little change in strength is expected today as Gonzalo passes near or over the Cabo Verde Islands. The shear is forecast to increase to more than 30 kt later tonight and become even more belligerent over the weekend. This should cause weakening to begin by Saturday morning with a continued gradual spin down through the weekend. As the SSTs cool along the track and strong shear continues, the system is likely to lose organized deep convection by late Sunday or Sunday night and become post-tropical. The NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of the Google Deep Mind and HFIP corrected consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands into tonight.

2. Heavy rains from Gonzalo could affect the eastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands and the western coast of Africa between Guinea-Bissau to Senegal through Saturday. Areas of flash flooding will be possible along the Africa coasts with some isolated flash flood concerns for the eastern portions of Cabo Verde.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

INIT  25/1500Z 15.1N  22.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 16.5N  22.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 18.1N  23.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 19.3N  23.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 20.3N  24.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  28/0000Z 20.8N  24.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1200Z 21.3N  25.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/1200Z 21.8N  25.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/1200Z 22.2N  25.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Tropical Storm Fay

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026

Convection continues to increase mostly on the northern side of Fay, while resisting dry air entrainment based as displayed on the visible and water vapor imagery. The lastest TAFB Dvorak fix came in at T2.5/45 kt, however a recent SAR pass found peak winds around 55 kt. In addition, the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of 37-42 kt. A recent ASCAT pass showed that some of the peak wind vectors were around 40 kt, but given the small size of Fay, it is possible that the ASCAT is undersampling the peak winds. Based on a compromise of all the available data, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt for this advisory.

Additional strengthening is still possible over the next several hours, as Fay is in a region of weak deep-layer shear and marginally favorable thermodynamic conditions. The statistical GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance indicates that northerly wind shear will increase tonight, which should help force dry air into the cyclone. Therefore, Fay should gradually weaken through the period, and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone during the weekend. The current NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids.

Fay’s initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 275/3 kt and is steered by a subtropical ridge anchored over the central Atlantic. The initial position for Fay has been adjusted to the left of the previous advisory and the center of the cyclone appears to have reformed to the northeast. By Saturday, a gradual turn toward the west-southwest and southwest is forecast while Fay weakens and become a vertically shallow remnant low steered by the low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies close to the GDMI ensemble mean and the HCCA corrected consensus aid.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

INIT  25/1500Z 30.1N  42.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 30.1N  43.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 30.0N  43.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 29.8N  44.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 29.5N  44.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  28/0000Z 29.0N  45.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1200Z 28.5N  45.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/1200Z 27.8N  46.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

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