Isaac Less Of A Threat To Boca, Moving West

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Tropical Storm Isaac
Mid-day Friday trajectory from the National Hurricane Center.

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) — Here's why we don't panic a week in advance when a storm is heading to Florida: it's likely going to change course.

Such is the case with Isaac. You can get out of line at Publix, and put down the plywood at Home Depot. It may be windy here, but as of now, it looks like that's it. The latest update and trajectory shows the storm is moving in a more westerly direction.

Here is the update — and map — from the National Hurricane Center:

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT

ISAAC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

WHILE THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS ELONGATED EAST-TO-WEST WITH

MULTIPLE EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA…THE LARGE CENTRAL AREA OF

LIGHT WINDS HAS SHRUNK AS THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVE CLOSER TO THE

CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED

66 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER…ALONG

WITH SFMR BIAS-CORRECTED WIND ESTIMATES NEAR 50 KT. BASED ON THESE

DATA…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.

THE 12Z POSITION USED A MEAN CENTER…WHICH RESULTED IN A SOUTHWARD

ADJUSTMENT. SINCE THEN…ISAAC APPEARS TO HAVE ACQUIRED A STRONGER

NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION…AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A

SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/12. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD

AGREEMENT THAT ISAAC SHOULD MOVED NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72

HR…STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC

TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

THIS PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT

OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION…AND LIES NEAR

THE CONSENSUS MODELS. AFTER 72 HR…THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK

GUIDANCE INCREASES DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A

TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE ECMWF KEEPS MORE RIDGE

BETWEEN ISAAC AND THE TROUGH…WHICH RESULTS IN A NORTHWESTWARD

MOTION THROUGH DAY 5. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER TROUGH…WHICH

RESULTS IN A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS

SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD AFTER 72 HR…AND THUS THE LATTER PORTION

OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO ADJUSTED EASTWARD.

WHILE THE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED…THE STRUCTURE OF ISAAC STILL

DOES NOT FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION DESPITE A VERY FAVORABLE

UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN. THE EARLY PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST

SHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN EARLIER…AND IT IS POSSIBLE

THAT ISAAC COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES

HISPANIOLA. LAND INTERACTION WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY FROM 24-48

HR…AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST MAY NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT AFTER

IT IS SEEN WHAT STRUCTURE ISAAC HAS AFTER CROSSING HISPANIOLA.

ISAAC SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO…WITH THE FORECAST

SHOWING THE CYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE

NORTHERN GULF COAST.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK DUE TO THE

UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE

AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.