STORMS: Hurricane Center Watching Three Systems, One In A Florida-ish Direction

[National Hurricane Center early advisory for July 6, 2020].

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Source: National Hurricane Center Advisory) — There are three systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center, with one on a potential path that could be of interest to South Florida.

Here’s the early morning advisory from the National Hurricane Center on July 6th, 2020:

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 640 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. …SPECIAL FEATURES… Tropical Storm Edouard is centered near 39.0N 53.6W at 0900 UTC, or 530 mi S of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving NE at 30 kt.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Edouard is expected to accelerate across the north central Atlantic during the next couple of days. Little significant change in strength is forecast while Edouard is forecast to become post- tropical later today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. …TROPICAL WAVES… An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 29W from 00N-20N, is moving west at 15-20 kt. Saharan dust is noted over much of the eastern Atlantic, mainly from 13N to 22N east of 40W. Due to this associated dry air scattered moderate convection is confined near the monsoon trough from 03N to 08N between 17W and 30W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 50W from 04N- 19N, is moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N-14N between 47W-55W. A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean extends along 67W from 05N-17N, moving west at 15 kt. No significant convection is currently noted with this wave.


…MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ… The monsoon trough extends from 17N16W to 14N23W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 04N30W to 09N47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm N and 120 nm S of the ITCZ between 31W and 46W. GULF OF MEXICO… A low level trough persisting across the northern Gulf has shifted northward and inland to along 30.5N, between southern Mississippi and the Florida Panhandle. A small low pressure area along this trough has also shifted NNE and inland overnight across the central Florida Panhandle, accompanied by fresh to strong SW winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms. Other squattered showers and isolated thunderstorms persist across the northern Gulf north of 27.5N from the southeast Louisiana coastal waters to the Florida Big Bend. is centered over the north- central Gulf coast near 30N88W. Moderate to fresh W to Sw winds continue south of the trough. A thermal trough is analyzed over the eastern Bay of Campeche with scattered showers along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere a narrow ridge extends from the Florida Keys to near 26N92W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow with seas of 2 to 4 ft outside of the ridge across the remainder of the basin. Fresh SW to W winds will prevail today across the NE waters E of 90W and the low level trough drifts northward. A narrow high pressure ridge will persist along 25N-26N for the next several days, with moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds prevailing over the waters W of 93W. A low pressure trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and freshen winds over the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA… Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean. A weakening upper trough extends from over the Windward Passage to W Panama. Subsident northerly flow on the west side of this feature has suppressed the convection across the basin. Surface ridging north of the area is maintaining fresh trades over the southern Caribbean, reaching 25 kt off of Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades are noted across the basin. Seas range between 3-6 ft, with seas 7-8 ft north of Colombia. A weak high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Thu before increasing there Thu night and Fri. Locally strong winds are expected tonight across the Gulf of Honduras, followed by pulses of fresh winds through midweek. Expect increasing winds, seas and active weather over the Tropical N Atlantic waters today through Tue with and behind a tropical wave that will cross the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN See the Special Features section for information on T.S. Edouard and the tropical waves moving across the basin. A weak surface trough extends from the south side of T.S. Edouard southwestward to near 31N74W. is analyzed in the western Atlantic from 29N79W to 25N80W. Scattered showers are noted within 180 nm S of this trough, as well as the west across the northwestern waters to near 80W. A surface ridge extends along 26N-27N west of 55W, supporting gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft persist over open waters. The weak high pressure ridge along 26N-27N will gradually lift northward this week. Low pressure across the SE U.S. will approach the coast of the Carolinas Wed through Thu and drag a trough across the northern Florida offshore waters. Increasing winds and seas are expected over the waters N of 27N Wed through Fri as high pressure builds across the region. Farther east, a surface ridge extends from 1031 mb high pressure near 41N30W to 30N46W, then WSW to the central Bahamas.

Fresh to strong trades and 7 to 9 ft seas are noted over much of the eastern Atlantic between this ridge and the deep tropics. The tropical wave along 50W will move across the tropical N Atlantic waters and the Lesser Antilles today through Tue, bringing a modest increase in winds and seas, and very active weather southward of 14N.


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