hurricane center

HURRICANE CENTER: Three Systems For Florida To Watch

Boca Raton Florida hurricane Palm Beach County
[Midday map, July 20, 2020 from National Hurricane Center].

BOCA RATON, FL ( (Source: National Hurricane Center Verbatim) — Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. …TROPICAL WAVES… The axis of a tropical wave is near 36W from 02N-19N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Low pressure has developed where the tropical wave intersects the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 34W and 40W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 43W from 02N-17N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 04N to 07N between 43W and 45W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 58W from 03N-21N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted near the wave axis from 08N to 14N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 76W south of 24N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 18N to 24N between 72W and 79W, including parts of Haiti, Cuba and the Bahamas.

…MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ… The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 20N16W to 13N22W to 08N42W. The ITCZ extends from 07N46W to 08N56W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate showers are noted from 08N to 12N between the coast of Africa and 40W, and along the ITCZ between 46W and 55W. GULF OF MEXICO A surface trough is analyzed in the NW Gulf from 29N93W to 26N94W. The surface trough is contributing to scattered moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 26N between 90W-95W. A surface trough is over the SW Gulf of Mexico west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is over the far eastern Bay of Campeche in association to this feature. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Gulf waters.

The northern extent of the tropical wave that is currently near 76W, will move into the SE Gulf on Tue, then move westward across the central and W Gulf through Thu night. Increasing winds and seas are possible by midweek in association with this system. CARIBBEAN SEA… See the section above for information on the tropical wave in the central Caribbean. An upper-level trough axis extends over the Bahamas westward through the Florida Straits. This feature is enhancing scattered moderate convection across the NW Caribbean Sea, north of 18N between 77W and 86W, including over portions of Cuba, Haiti and Jamaica. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds prevail over the western Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds will persist across the region for the next several days. Expect increasing winds and seas E of 65W Tue night through Fri night as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN… A broad upper-level trough extends over the SW N Atlantic, Bahamas and Florida Straits. A weak surface trough is analyzed from 29N71W to 23N73W. The northern extent of a tropical wave is also moving through the region, extending northward across eastern Cuba and the western Bahamas. These features are producing scattered moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Florida Straits, Old Bahama Channel and across the Bahamas. Isolated showers are farther NE near the surface trough. Moderate to fresh trades prevail over the waters within 210 nm north of the Greater Antilles between 65W- 80W, including most of the Bahamas.

Locally strong east winds are noted along the north coast of Hispaniola extending out 90 nm. Farther east, there are several surface troughs containing isolated showers. These troughs extend from 32N55W to 28N57W, from 32N49W to 30N51W, from 30N44W to 25N46W, and from 23N55W to 17N55W. A 1021 mb surface high is centered east of Bermuda near 32N62W. The surface ridge axis extends east- west along 31/32N. As a result, light to gentle winds are found in the 26N- 32N latitude band between 35W- 80W.

A high pressure ridge north of the area will support pulses of fresh to strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward Passage for the next several nights. Expect fresh winds to continue over the waters S of 25N through early this week as the northern extent of a tropical wave, currently along 76W, moves westward. Winds and seas will increase E of 65W Tue night through Fri night as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic.


Paul Saperstein


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