Boca Raton Delray Beach Florida hurricane


[National Hurricane Center 5 AM Advisory July 22, 2020]
BOCA RATON, FL ( (Source: National Hurricane Center) — Tropical Depression 7 will likely become a tropical storm today, and the early cone suggests that this is a storm  South Florida should watch. 

From the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 …SMALL DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH… SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————- LOCATION…10.0N 42.4W ABOUT 1285 MI…2065 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS ——————– Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ———————- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 42.4 West.

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A generally westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

The cyclone has become a little better organized this morning with indications of it developing convective banding features. Intensity estimates based on Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are 30 kt and 35 kt respectively.

I prefer to wait for consensus 35-kt estimates before naming the system, but it seems very likely that we will have Gonzalo over the tropical Atlantic very soon. The intensity forecast for this system is subject to more than the usual degree of uncertainty. Although the cyclone is likely to remain in an environment of fairly low shear, the influences of dry air and large-scale subsidence could inhibit strengthening in a few days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and calls for some strengthening during the next couple of days followed by a leveling off thereafter.

This is below the model consensus, but above the global model predictions which eventually dissipate the cyclone. It should also be noted that the small size of this system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward. The motion continues a little north of due west or 285/10 kt.

A well-defined subtropical ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of the tropical cyclone during the forecast period. The official forecast, like the previous one, is for a generally westward motion at a fast forward speed over the forecast periods. This is in close agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.


Paul Saperstein


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