NHC: Too Early To Predict Precise Impact Location, Magnitude
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) — Expect a wet weekend as Tropical Storm Isaias, as of early Thursday morning, has Boca Raton, Delray Beach, Boynton Beach and all of Palm Beach County in its track.
The good news at this point, no one is yet forecasting doom and gloom. COVID-19 is still the disaster to be focused on.
Here’s the key message from the National Hurricane Center as of 5 a.m. Thursday:
“While this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Cuba and Florida later this week and this weekend, it is too soon to determine the location or magnitude of those impacts. Interests there should monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast over the next couple of days.“
Here is the longer discussion from the National Hurricane Center for those seeking to satisfy their inner-meteorologist:
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ———————- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 67.9 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move over Hispaniola late today and near the Southeastern Bahamas by early Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated until landfall in Dominican Republic later today, with re-strengthening forecast on Friday and Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) from the center. A Weatherflow station in Yabucoa Tanque de Agua reported sustained winds of 52 mph (83 km/h) with a gust to 59 mph (94 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ———————- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND:
Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico overnight. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area by this morning, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos this afternoon.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Central Bahamas beginning Friday morning and are possible in the northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches. Puerto Rico and northern Haiti: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches. Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning today.
Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands, eastern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will be affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today.
These swells are forecast to reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas this morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
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