NHC: ISAIAS COULD HIT FLORIDA AS HURRICANE, BUT STIL TOO SOON FOR ACCURATE FORECAST
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Source: NHC) — Still no need to panic but the National Hurricane maintains that keeping an eye on Isaias is a smart play. The storm could hit South Florida has a hurricane late Saturday, or it could encounter significant sheer in the next day and become not much of anything at all.
From the National Hurricane Center early Thursday afternoon:
“The intensity forecast remains challenging. The structure of the storm is likely to be disrupted by its passage near or over Hispaniola today, and some weakening is likely. Once the system moves away from the Greater Antilles gradual strengthening is anticipated. The global models and the SHIPS guidance suggest that Isaias will encounter an area of moderate southwesterly shear over the weekend, and the NHC intensity forecast is again leveled off at that time. There are models that continue to suggest Isaias could become a hurricane when it is near the U.S., but given the continued uncertainty, the NHC intensity forecast remains near the intensity consensus.
1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect South Florida Saturday morning, potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding.
2. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early afternoon and will spread across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas later today through Friday, and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for these areas. Do not focus on the details of the track forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the center of the system.
3. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge along portions of the U.S. east coast beginning this weekend in Florida and spreading northward to the Carolinas and southern mid-Atlantic states early next week. Due to Isaias interacting with Hispaniola, the details of the track and intensity forecast remain uncertain and it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Isaias and updates to the forecast. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued for portions of South Florida later today.
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