BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) — Tropical Depression 11 is now Tropical Storm Josephine. Here is the update from the National Hurricane Center.
A just-received ASCAT overpass showed an area of 35-40 kt winds about 70 n mi north of the center of Tropical Depression Eleven, and based on this the cyclone is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Josephine with an initial intensity of 40 kt. Satellite imagery shows that the convective pattern associated with Josephine has become a little better organized since the last advisory, with a ragged central convective feature and a weak band in the northern semicircle. The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 295/13 kt. Josephine should continue this motion for the next several days as it moves toward a weakness in the western portion of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. The global models forecast the western end of the ridge to weaken even more after 72-96 h, which should cause the cyclone, or what is left of it by that time, to turn northwestward. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the new forecast track lies a little to the right of the previous track and a little to the left of the consensus models. Some additional strengthening appears likely during the next 24- 36 h as Josephine moves through an environment of light vertical wind shear. After that, the cyclone is expected to encounter moderate to strong southwesterly shear as it approaches an upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic, which should cause at least some weakening. The new intensity forecast is adjusted upward for the first 72 h based on the current intensity. After 72 h, it shows weakening similar to the previous forecast, but not as drastic as the global models that show the storm degenerating to a tropical wave before 120 h. Josephine is the earliest tenth tropical storm of record in the Atlantic, with the next earliest tenth storm being Tropical Storm Jose on August 22, 2005.
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