Track Continues To Change, But Boca Raton, Delray Beach, Boynton Beach, Palm Beach County Look Good
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) — UPDATE: 11:13 AM Saturday. Laura is seemingly no longer a threat to South Florida. We are posting the latest National Hurricane Center forecast below.
While wind and rain bands may be possible for South Florida over the next few days, we are closing our coverage of Laura with this report, barring a major change.
The earlier forecasts and advisory remain on this page. BocaNewsNow.com will update with major track changes or forecast advisories. The graphic above — and forecast below — are accurate as of the 11 a.m. advisory on Saturday, August 22, 2020.
Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 Laura is producing considerable deep convection but the cloud pattern remains disorganized. Surface observations indicate that the center is still not well defined, but the San Juan WSR-88D radar shows a mid-level center south of eastern Puerto Rico. The radar also shows heavy rains spreading over that island. The initial intensity estimate remains at 35 kt based on continuity. As noted in previous discussions, the intensity forecast for Laura is dependent on its future track. The official forecast, like the previous one, moves the center over the land masses of Hispaniola and Cuba for the next couple of days which should limit intensification at least through the weekend. After Laura moves into the Gulf of Mexico, warm waters should lead to strengthening and the system is likely to become a hurricane in 3 to 4 days. The official intensity forecast is close to the consensus guidance. At this time the influence of small tropical cyclone Marco, which should move over the northwestern Gulf about a day or two before Laura, is not expected to be significant. This could change in the coming days however. The initial motion estimate remains quite uncertain and is near 280/16 kt. No significant changes are being made to the official track forecast. Laura is likely to move on a generally west-northwestward track on the periphery of a mid-tropospheric high pressure area for the next few days. By day 4, the system should turn northwestward while moving along the southwestern side of the high. The official track forecast is only slightly north of the dynamical model consensus at 36-72 hours and essentially the same as the consensus otherwise. The GFS and its ensemble mean are significantly farther west of the official forecast at days 3 and beyond, which suggests relatively low confidence in the longer-range track of Laura. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas Saturday into Sunday. Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday, with widespread river flooding possible in Puerto Rico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the central Bahamas Sunday night, as well as portions of eastern and central Cuba Sunday and Sunday night. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 17.8N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 18.6N 69.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/1200Z 19.4N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0000Z 20.9N 76.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1200Z 22.4N 80.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 25/0000Z 23.7N 83.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 25/1200Z 25.2N 86.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 27.9N 90.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 31.6N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
The following Bulletin was issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 a.m. on Saturday, August 22, 2020.
BocaNewsNow.com continues to monitor Laura but will now only update if there is a dramatic shift affecting South Florida. As of 11 a.m. Saturday, August 22, 2020, South Florida is no longer in the cone.
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 800 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 ...DISORGANIZED LAURA CONTINUES TO MOVE NEAR EASTERN PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 66.0W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque * The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic * The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Cuba should monitor the progress of Laura. Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches will likely be issued for portions of central and eastern Cuba later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 66.0 West. Laura is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a generally west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near Puerto Rico this morning, near or over Hispaniola this afternoon and tonight, and near or over eastern Cuba Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Maximum amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico. 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches are expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area this morning through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday night. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba, and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office.
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) — Anything can happen and often does as storms develop and change course, but just an hour after Tropical Storm Laura was “born” and on a path for South Florida, the storm has apparently shifted and is now on a course to bring just a little wind and rain as it moves into the Gulf.
We stress that forecasts change and South Florida could quickly be back in the cone, but for now, the latest forecast is largely good news for Palm Beach County and all of South Florida. Here is the 11 AM (Friday) update from the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating the system this morning and found that the maximum winds have increased to near 40 kt, and therefore the cyclone is being named. The Hurricane Hunters also found that the center of the storm is located somewhat to the south of previous estimates. The system is better organized than it was yesterday, but still lacks well-defined banding features. However, some upper-level outflow is now noted over the southern portion of the circulation. The official forecast calls for some slow strengthening during the next couple of days, but the intensity forecast is quite uncertain and depends on how much interaction with land will occur. For now, we will assume that the northern part of the circulation will remain over water so that the system will not be too disrupted by Hispaniola and Cuba. The official intensity forecast remains close to the model consensus except at days 4 and 5 where it is a little lower due to these uncertainties. With the repositioning of the center, the motion is very uncertain but is estimated to be 270/16 kt. Laura is expected to move mainly west-northwestward on the south side of a subtropical high pressure system over the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, the tropical cyclone should turn toward the northwest as it moves around the western periphery of the high. The official track forecast has been adjusted to the south of the previous one and is on the northern side of the guidance suite. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today through Saturday, and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning today and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos islands Saturday and Sunday, and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week and the northeast U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 17.0N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 17.4N 62.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 18.3N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 19.2N 69.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 20.2N 73.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 21.6N 77.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 23.2N 80.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 26.5N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 29.5N 87.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
