national hurricane center 3 waves

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: Wave Tracking To Florida Has 40-Percent Chance Of Developing




BOCA RATON, FL ( — The wave that wasn’t much of anything early this morning now has a 40-percent chance of developing into a tropical system. Its five-day path has it gaining strength as it treks towards Florida.

The upgrade in strength and speed is significant. While anything can — and often does — happen with storms this far out, it is certainly one to watch as the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season continues.

Meantime, tropical system “16” above is now “Tropical Storm Nana.” It remains on course that does not appear to affect the U.S. Mainland.

The latest forecast is below.

The National Hurricane Center is also watching Tropical Depression 15 which remains off the Atlantic coast. The next two storm names are Omar and Paulette. NOAA expects the extremely busy hurricane season to eventually lead to 25 named storms.

Here is the latest update from the National Hurricane Center:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Fifteen, located more than 100 miles southeast of 
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. 

1. A well-organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms associated 
with a tropical wave continues to move quickly westward across the 
central Caribbean Sea. Although the disturbance does not yet have a 
well-defined circulation center, ship observations indicate that 
tropical-storm-force winds are occurring in the northern portion of 
wave to the southeast of Jamaica, which will spread near or just 
south of Jamaica later this morning and into this afternoon. 
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more 
conducive for development, and a tropical depression or a tropical 
storm is likely to form during the next day or so before the 
system reaches Central America Wednesday night. Locally heavy rains 
and gusty winds are possible on Jamaica today, and interests there, 
as well as in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and 
the Yucatan Peninsula, should monitor the progress of this system. 
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route 
to investigate the disturbance.

Potential tropical cyclone or tropical cyclone advisories will 
likely be issued later today, along with watches and warnings. 
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a 
day or so.  Gradual development of this system will be possible 
through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the 
far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen are issued under 
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen are issued under 
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

Forecaster Stewart




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