hurricane forecast

HURRICANE FORECASTERS: Three Waves, Two Tropical Storms, It’s Busy


Florida Should Watch Waves Moving West


BOCA RATON, FL ( — Two tropical waves may merge, a third is expected to form this weekend, and tropical storms Nana and Omar remain active. It’s busy for forecasters at the National Hurricane Center, and interests along the east coast should be paying attention.

The existing tropical waves — marked as yellow and red above — have a high probability of development. The red wave itself has a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression within five days.

The extended tracking map often changes quite a bit, but shows the long range path on a course towards Florida.


Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
upgraded Hurricane Nana, approaching the coast of Belize, and on 
Tropical Depression Omar, located a few hundred miles north of 

1. A broad area of low pressure located over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde 
Islands continues to produce a small area of showers and 
thunderstorms.  This system is expected to interact with a tropical 
wave approaching from the east over the weekend, and it is unclear 
if the interaction will enhance or inhibit development of this 
system while it meanders over the eastern and central tropical 
Atlantic through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. A tropical wave located off the coast of west Africa is merging with 
another disturbance located a couple of hundred miles south of the 
Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in an extensive area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms.  Development of this system is likely to 
be slow during the next couple of days while it moves west- 
northwestward at about 15 mph, and a tropical depression is more 
likely to form early next week over the central tropical Atlantic 
where environmental conditions are forecast to be more favorable 
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of 
Africa over the weekend.  An area of low pressure is expected to 
form from the wave, and some development of this low will be 
possible early next week while it moves generally westward over the 
far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Paul Saperstein


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